Our country is one of the few countries in the world where there is a low birth rate. In combination with high mortality, it has a negative impact on demographic indicators. In recent years, the birth rate in Russia has fallen sharply. Forecasts are also disappointing.
General information about the population of Russia
According to Rosstat, the population of Russia in 2018 amounted to 146 million 880 thousand 432 people. This figure puts our country in ninth place in terms of population in the world. The average population density in our country is 8.58 people. for 1 km2.
Most of the inhabitants are concentrated in the European territory of Russia (about 68%), although in area it is much smaller than the Asian one. This is clearly seen from the distribution of population density: in the west of the country it is 27 people. per 1 km2, and in the center and east - only 3 people. for 1 km2. The highest density value is recorded in Moscow - over 4626 people/1 km2, and the minimum - in the Chukotka district (below 0.07 people/1km2).
The share of urban residents is 74.43 percent. There are 170 cities in Russia with a population of more than 100,000 people. In 15 of them, the population exceeds 1 million.
The birth rate in Russia is quite low.
In total, over 200 different nationalities can be found in the country. They are also called ethnic groups. The share of Russians in this case is about 81 percent. Tatars are in second place (3.9%), and Ukrainians are in third. Approximately one percent of the total population falls on such nationalities as Chuvash, Bashkirs, Chechens, Armenians.
In Russia, the predominance of the elderly population over those of working age is pronounced. The ratio of employed to pensioners in our country is 2.4/1, and, for example, in the USA it is 4.4/1, in China it is 3.5/1, and in Uganda it is 9/1. The figures are closest in Greece: 2.5/1.
Demographic characteristics of Russia
For Russia, a gradual decline in population is typical. In the 50s of the 20th century, the natural increase was at the level of 15-20 people per 1000 inhabitants per year. There were many large families.
In the 60s, it was falling rapidly, and in the 70s-80s it was only a little over 5 people.
A new sharp drop occurred in the early 90s, as a result of which it became negative and was at the level of minus 5-6 people per thousand inhabitants per year. In the middle of the 2000s, the situation began to improve, and by 2013 the growth went into the positive zone. However, in recent yearsthe demographic situation worsened again.
However, the dynamics of the birth rate in Russia and mortality are not always interconnected. Thus, the fall in the birth rate in the 1960s did not lead to a change in the dynamics of mortality. At the same time, in the first half of the 1990s, the death rate increased sharply, but somewhat later than the birth rate fell. In the 2000s, the birth rate began to grow, but the death rate continued to increase, but not at such a rapid pace. From the middle to the end of the 2000s, there was an improvement in all indicators: the birth rate was growing, and the death rate was falling. In recent years, the statistics of births and deaths in Russia has the following features: there is a sharp decline in the birth rate, but the death rate continues to decrease.
In general, over the past 65 years, the birth rate has fallen by about half, and the death rate has not changed much.
The birth rate in Russia in recent decades
If you do not take the last 2 years, the overall picture of fertility reflects a sharp decline in the 90s and a gradual rise since the mid-2000s. There is a clear positive relationship between rural and urban populations, but the range of fluctuations is higher for rural areas. All this is shown by the graph of the birth rate in Russia by years.
The rapid decline in the indicator continued until 1993, the field of which slowed down sharply. The bottom was reached in 1999. Then a gradual increase in values began, which reached a maximum value in 2015. For the rural population, the maximum was passed a year earlier. Since there are more urban residents than rural ones, the averageindicators more clearly reflect the dynamics of the urban population.
Population dynamics in Russia
The population is influenced not only by natural growth, but also by migration flows. Mostly migrants come from the countries of Central Asia. In recent years, refugees arriving from Ukraine have also affected the growth of the population of our country.
The total population of Russia increased until 1996, after which its steady decline began, which continued until 2010. Then growth resumed again.
General demographics
The demographic situation in Russia, according to UN estimates, meets the criteria for a demographic crisis. The average birth rate is 1.539. Russia has a traditionally high mortality rate. Characteristic for our country is a sharp predominance of deaths from cardiovascular diseases over other causes, which is directly related to the he alth-destroying lifestyle of most Russians. Improper diet, physical inactivity and smoking are common causes of death. The extremely unsatisfactory state of medicine also affects, and in some places the depressing ecological situation. Drunkenness is common in many regions.
In terms of life expectancy, Russia lags far behind all developed countries and even a number of developing countries.
Birth rate in Russia by region
The distribution of this indicator on the map of our country is rather uneven. The highest valuesrecorded in the east of the North Caucasus and in some areas in the south of Siberia. Here the birth rate reaches 25-26, 5 people per thousand inhabitants a year.
The lowest rates are observed in the central regions of the European part of Russia. This is especially pronounced in the southeast of the Central Federal District and in some regions of the Volga region. In the very center, the situation is somewhat better, which is obviously due to the influence of Moscow. In general, the worst birth rates are observed in approximately the same regions where the highest death rate is recorded.
Birth rate in Russia in recent years
Since 2016, the country has experienced a sharp drop in the birth rate. The number of births this year was 10% less than in the same period last year, and in 2017, the birth rate in Russia showed the same decline compared to 2016.
In the first 3 months of 2018, 391 thousand people were born in Russia, which is 21 thousand less than in January-March last year. However, in some regions, the birth rate increased slightly. These are the Republic of Altai, Chechnya, Ingushetia, North Ossetia, Kalmykia and the Nenets Autonomous Okrug.
At the same time, mortality, on the contrary, decreased - by 2% over the year.
The reasons for the decline in fertility may be natural: the number of women of childbearing age is gradually decreasing, which is an echo of the decline of the 90s. Therefore, the decrease in the absolute birth rate is estimated at a lower value - 7.5%, and it may reflect a change in the socio-economic situation in the country.in recent years.
Due to the low birth rate, natural growth was also low. Although 63.6 thousand people died in 2017 less than a year earlier, the decrease in the number of births amounted to 203 thousand people. At the same time, the total population has slightly increased due to the increased migration flow from Central Asia and, to a lesser extent, from Ukraine. Thus, the birth rate in Russia in 2017 and 2018 was significantly reduced.
Forecast
According to the forecast of Rosstat, the demographic situation in the country will continue to deteriorate, and migration flows will no longer be able to cover the natural population decline. The prices for hydrocarbon raw materials will obviously, as before, play a big role in the future demographic fate of the country. Thus, the birth rate in Russia will be low.
