The concept of unemployment, in accordance with the methodology of the ILO, which is used in a modified form by Rosstat, is the ratio of the economically active population of the country aged 15 to 72 to people who, by the time of the study, sought to find a job or were interested in employment.
The specifics of the assessment of the unemployment rate in Russia
The unemployment rate in Russia will be determined by taking into account two parameters:
- Number of calls to the employment service.
- Analysis of the results of population surveys on problems that are carried out within 0.6% of the total population of the country.
Every quarter, about 65,000 people aged 15 to 72 are examined in Russia. During the year, the number of examined persons reaches about 260 thousand people.
Rosstat data
According to sample surveys of the population of Rosstat, in April 2015 the unemployment rate in Russia reached 5.8%. This isis about 4.4 million people. Employment services recorded less than 1 million unemployed. It was this information that guided the President of the country during his direct speech with a report on the results of the year in April 2015. In accordance with sociological surveys, in February 2015, about 27% of the population noted a decrease in the number of employees at enterprises during the end of 2014 - the beginning of 2015. According to information provided by Rosstat, over the past decade, the unemployment rate in Russia has ranged between 5.3% in 2014 and 8.2% in 2009, which many remember as a crisis. In general, in the last year, according to the figures, the situation has only improved.
Unemployment rate in Russia for January-April 2015
According to the conducted research, in the period from January to April, the highest unemployment rate was recorded in the Republic of Ingushetia. The indicator reached a value of 29.9% already in April of this year. In the rest of the North Caucasian republics and in Kalmykia, in the Trans-Baikal Territory and in Sevastopol, in the territory of the Republic of Tyva and in the Nenets Autonomous Okrug, unemployment reached 10%. Indicators within 3% were recorded only in Moscow and St. Petersburg. In the central part of the country, the indicator is either lower or does not exceed the natural rate of unemployment in Russia (5.8%). In some regions, unemployment reaches 6-8% of the total active population, with an average value of 7%. Official statistics give no reason to panic.
Search queries statistics
The dynamics of the unemployment rate in Russia is successfully tracked by the number of search queries with the word "vacancy". Thus, in the period from March 2013 to April 2015, the number of requests increased by 94.2%. This was the highest in the last two years. A very illogical situation is being formed. Despite the systematic improvement in official figures, people have become more active in looking for work. The current situation is doubtful. In March 2013, the official unemployment rate was only 5.7%, which was in line with the number of searches on the Internet. Accordingly, the increase in unemployment in March 2015 caused an increase in job seekers on the Internet by 1.94 times. If we transfer the number of requests with the word “vacancy” to a percentage, it should equate to 11%. In fact, an increase of only 0.1% was officially announced. The phenomenon is easily explained by the fact that there is not only an official, but also a hidden level of unemployment in Russia. The number of those who are officially registered at work, but at the same time either work part-time or are not employed at all, is increasing. Searching for vacancies on the Internet is one of the most popular areas today. Even those people who are under threat of dismissal resort to it, which also leaves a certain imprint on the numbers.
Monitoring in the field of employment
In February 2015, representatives of the FOM conducted a general monitoringsituation in the country. According to the information provided, the following statistics were deduced:
- Loss of work among relatives was noted by 31% of respondents.
- At least 27% of all monitoring participants announced a reduction in their enterprises.
- 39% of respondents emphasized the high probability of losing their job.
- At least 19% of survey participants spoke of hidden unemployment within their companies.
If we compare the situation with the crisis of 2008, when the unemployment rate was incredibly high, today everything is more or less stable, which is confirmed by official data. At the same time, many respondents note a deterioration in the situation.
How was the situation in 2014?
The unemployment rate in Russia in 2014 is remembered by many experts as a critical moment. According to Rosstat, at that time the number of economically unemployed people was equal to 151,000 people. Against the backdrop of the current economic situation, experts did not stop talking about a further deterioration in performance. Authorized representatives of Rosstat managed to calculate: the unemployment rate in Russia in 2014 in September was only 4.9%, but the figures for October were much worse, at 5.1%. An analysis of the situation showed that people who were involved in the private sector suffered the most from the situation. The forecast was made that a high level of unemployment in Russia, including black, will be recorded in the coming year.
Unemployment during the 2008-2009 and 2014-2015 crisis
During the crisis of 2008-2009, the first information about the growth of unemployment was received by the media in October 2008. The main wave covered the country only after 7-8 months, from January to April 2009. Significant differences in indicators were observed in the regional context. Information about the creation of new jobs, which was often announced at that time, was considered by experts as not very comforting. For example, 40 thousand jobs that were created in the Far East, according to information provided by EMISS, practically did not change anything against the background of the fact that the official status of "unemployed" was assigned to 224.2 thousand people. Compared to the problems of 2008, the unemployment rate in Russia in 2015 has a completely different character. The growth of the indicator is due to an increase in hidden unemployment, which makes it impossible to soberly and rationally assess the processes taking place in the country's economy. Positive social sentiment is maintained by low official figures, which, according to most analysts and industry experts, are far from reality. The current situation has a negative impact on the well-being of the living standards of the population.
What is the difference between 2008 and 2014
The unemployment rate in Russia in 2014 is not officially growing, as it was in 2008. This is due to a differentmanagement decisions, with the introduction of new programs to combat unemployment and with the growth of a hidden indicator, which is virtually impossible to reflect in the reports of Rosstat. The problem is also hidden in the time delay between the adopted management decisions and the period when they begin to produce the expected results. The complex of measures is based on professional retraining of personnel, which not only does not give an immediate effect, but also does not provide momentary employment. To make matters worse, Ulyukayev, who heads the Ministry of Economy, has put forward a proposal to stop funding programs to combat unemployment due to the fact that the official unemployment rate in Russia's regions turned out to be much better than expected.
What will happen in 2015?
Against the background of a catastrophic drop in the price of oil in early 2015 (January-February) and a parallel weakening of the ruble, economists spoke of the state economy entering a recession. Answering the question about the level of unemployment in Russia in 2015, many focused on the inevitability of cuts due to the freezing of many planned and ongoing projects, as well as in the event of the final closure of many companies. The internal economic situation in the country did not help to expect general unemployment rates. If in 2009 it was possible to observe a value at the level of 8.3%, by the end of 2015 one should not expect an indicator of more than 6.4% against the background of 5.5% in 2014. In comparison with other countries of the world, the course of events is not catastrophic. So, Spain for severalyears can not cope with an indicator of 25%, Greece - with 25.8%, and France and Austria - with 10%.
Official government statements
The country's Ministry of Economic Development is betting that the unemployment rate in Russia, whose statistics are provided from official sources, will rise to 6.4%. The number of unemployed may reach about 434 thousand people. The situation will also affect the level of wages, which are planned to be reduced by 9.6% by the end of 2015 (versus 3.5% in 2008). This is due to a reduction in the financial capacity of budgets. The poverty rate is expected to rise from 11% in 2014 to 12.4% in 2015. According to the forecasts of Igor Nikolaev, director of the FBK Strategic Analysis Department, if by the end of 2015 the indicator stops at a value of 6.4%, then in 2016-2017 it will be possible to observe its sharp increase. The forecast of representatives of the HSE Development Center says that such sectors of the economy as trade and construction, services and tourism will suffer the most from the crisis. The representatives of the financial sector will have a hard time. The most low-skilled office workers are at risk of being fired. We emphasize that all forecasts remain only forecasts and assumptions, it will be possible to consider the situation in fact in a certain time period and on the basis of both official and unofficial data.
