In 2017, experts, based on official Russian statistics, said that Russia was once again in a demographic hole. The reason for this is that the female population of the country is aging, and young people are afraid to have children due to the unstable economic situation and tensions in the political arena.
After the difficult nineties, another population crisis was observed in Russia at the beginning of the twenty-first century, and only in 2008 gradually began to decline. Since 1992, only by 2013, the number of citizens of the Russian Federation began to increase. But already in 2014, a new wave of demographic decline began.
Demographic peaks and pits
The demographic hole is usually called the extremely low population, a significant decrease in the birth rate simultaneously with an increase in mortality. All modern problems with the stable reproduction of the population of Russia are attributed by experts to the sixties of the last century, when, after the post-war peak, the ratesbirth rates have declined. The situation worsened in the 1980s, when the death rate increased along with the decline in the birth rate.
In the twentieth century, Russia experienced more than one demographic crisis. The events of the First World War and the Civil War did not cause significant damage to the population, since at that time the birth rate in our country was higher than in Western countries. Further collectivization and famine led to the disintegration of the rural way of life for most citizens, and the number of urban residents increased. Many women became hired workers, which shook the institution of the family. As a result of all these events, the birth rate has fallen.
The mass mobilization in 1939 also contributed to the decline in the birth rate, as extramarital affairs were frowned upon at the time and early marriage was the normal state of affairs. All this does not yet fully fit the definition of a demographic hole, but the population began to decline even then.
As a result of the losses in the Second World War, the post-war famine and the forced deportation of certain peoples, extramarital relationships have spread. The birth rate dropped to 20-30% of the pre-war level, while in Germany the rates remained stably high - 70% of the pre-war years. After the war, there was a population explosion, but he could not stabilize the situation and restore indirect and actual losses.
The period from the late eighties to the present
According to statistics, from the beginning of the 50s to the end of the 80s, there was a stable natural increasepopulation, but still the republics of Central Asia and Transcaucasia were distinguished by the best rates. Directly in Russia, the birth rate has fallen below the level of 1964.
Small improvement happened in 1985, but a few years later another demographic hole was recorded. The sharp decline in population in the nineties was the result of the simultaneous superposition of several unfavorable trends. Firstly, the birth rate has fallen and the death rate has risen, and secondly, other social and economic factors have also had an impact: crime, poverty, and so on.
The consequences of the demographic hole of the 90s have been overcome relatively recently. In the Russian Federation, the rate of population reproduction increased for the first time only by 2013. This was facilitated by an active state policy, support for young families and other measures, more on which below.
In 2014, Russia again suffered a demographic crisis. Thus, the demographic pits (period 1990-2014) are one big fall with an attempt to get out of the crisis, but another failure.
Causes of the demographic crisis
Crisis of population reproduction become a reflection of the existence of certain problems in society. The demographic pit is a consequence of social, economic, medical, ethical, informational and other factors:
- A general decline in fertility and an increase in mortality in developed countries, regardless of quality of life.
- Replacing the existingpreviously traditional social model of society with new trends.
- General decline in living standards.
- Deterioration of the environmental situation.
- Declining overall he alth of the population.
- Increase in mortality.
- Massive alcoholism and drug addiction.
- Rejection of the government policy to support he alth care.
- Deformation of the structure of society.
- Degradation of the institutions of the family and marriage.
- Growth in the number of families consisting of one parent and a child or a childless couple.
- The negative impact of new technologies on public he alth.
Scientists are divided in opinion, which reasons in this or that case are dominant. Demographer S. Zakharov argues that negative population growth rates are observed in any country at a certain stage of development. Doctor of Physical and Mathematical Sciences S. Sulakshin considers the replacement of traditional Russian values with Western ones, the spiritual devastation of the Russian people, and the lack of a common ideology as the main reasons for the demographic pits.
Signs of demographic problems
Demographic pits in Russia and the world are usually defined by the following features:
- Declining birth rates.
- Declining fertility rate.
- Declining life expectancy.
- Increasing death rate.
Immigration and emigration
The concepts of immigration and emigration are associated with the theme of demography. Emigration from Russia to other countries is negativeaffects the population. But, fortunately, all mass emigration is already a thing of the past. After the fall of the Berlin Wall, ethnic Germans who lived in the USSR returned to Germany, in the 70s and 80s those who could be granted citizenship by Israel left. After the collapse of the Union, the number of people leaving decreased and reached a minimum by 2009. Starting next year, the number of immigrants began to increase.
Currently, a surge in emigration is unlikely due to the fact that few people who leave can acquire citizenship in the host countries. This does not mean that the number of people wishing to leave has decreased, it is just that citizens are faced with quotas in other countries and do not want to live abroad “on bird's rights.”
As for the pace of immigration, in Russia the number of entrants has long exceeded the number of those leaving. Throughout the twenty post-Soviet years, a significant flow of citizens of neighboring states was sent to our country, which compensated for the natural decline in population. It is noteworthy that the largest part of these immigrants are compatriots who left for the republics of the USSR from the 50s to the 80s, as well as their direct descendants.
Distrust of Rosstat data
Of course, the issue of demography was not without conspiracy theorists. Some even call the demographic hole of 1999 the last, arguing that the statistics are deceiving, and in fact the modern population of the Russian Federation does not have 143 million citizens at all, but at best 80-90 million. Rosstat is herethan to answer, because the statistics are indirectly confirmed by many sources. Firstly, all civil registry offices transmit primary information on civil status, secondly, some conspiracy theorists themselves are co-authors of Demographic Yearbooks, and thirdly, other very authoritative demographic institutions of the world also use the official data of Rosstat.
Economic consequences of crises
The demographic pits have both positive and negative consequences for the economy. At the second stage of population decline, the proportion of citizens of working age exceeds the proportion of the younger and older generations. The third stage of the crisis is characterized by a negative effect (the proportion of the older generation exceeds the able-bodied population, which creates a burden on society).
Consequences in education and the military sphere
Due to demographic pits, the number of school graduates is decreasing, so universities are fighting for each entrant. In this regard, the issue of reducing the number of higher educational institutions (from 1115 to 200) is being discussed, layoffs of teaching staff by 20-50% are coming. Some politicians, however, say that such a step will get rid of universities that provide insufficient quality education.
At present, the number of schoolchildren is expected to increase by one million in five to six years, and by another two million in the next five years. After the 2020s, an intensive reduction in the number of school-age children will begin.
Another consequence of demographic crises is the reduction of mobilization resources. All this has an impact on military reforms, forcing the cancellation of deferrals, reduction in the number of troops and the transition to the contact principle of recruitment. The low population density in the Far East raises the danger of China developing a low-intensity conflict. Thus, only 4.4% (less than 6.3 million) of citizens live in territories that make up more than 35% of the country. At the same time, 120 million people live in the regions neighboring Northeast China, 3.5 million in Mongolia, 28.5 million in North Korea, almost 50 million in the Republic of Korea, and more than 130 million in Japan.
By the twenties of the current century, the number of men of military age will decrease by a third, and by 2050 - by more than 40%.
Social sphere and demographic holes
In the life of society, there have been trends towards the Scandinavian model of existence - a bachelor, familyless life. Gradually, the number of children in families, and families themselves, is decreasing. Until the end of the nineteenth century, Russia was a country with a young population. Then the number of children significantly exceeded the number of the older generation, it was customary to have five or more children in the family. Since the sixties of the twentieth century, the process of demographic aging began, which was the result of a decrease in the birth rate. In the nineties, the Russian Federation was already among the countries with high rates of aging of citizens. Today, the proportion of people of retirement age in our country is 13%.
Threats of the demographic crisis
The pace of the demographic crisis across the country is uneven. Many researcherstend to believe that depopulation affects the Russian people to a greater extent. For example, according to researcher L. Rybakovsky, from 1989 to 2002, the number of Russians by nationality decreased by 7%, and the total population - by 1.3%. According to another ethnographer, up to 2025, more than 85% of the decline will fall precisely on the Russians. All Russian-populated regions have recently seen negative growth.
Given the high level of migration, a likely consequence of the demographic crisis in the Russian Federation will be a change in the national and religious composition of the population. For example, by 2030 every fifth inhabitant of our country will practice Islam. In Moscow, every third birth is migrants. All this can subsequently lead to the loss of the country's territorial integrity.
Population forecast
Another demographic hole in Russia (according to the forecast of Igor Beloborodov) is expected in 2025-2030. If the country is able to stay within the existing borders, subject to a decrease in the number of permanent population, then only 80 million people will remain in the Russian Federation by 2080. Russian demographer Anatoly Antonov claims that without the revival of a large family by 2050, only 70 million people will live in Russia. Thus, the demographic hole of 2017 is either an opportunity to revive the country, or another point in consolidating population decline trends.
Main ways out of the crisis
Many believe demographic solutions are possibleonly with the systematic strengthening of the institution of the traditional family. The current demographic policy of Russia so far assumes only material support from parents (one-time assistance and maternity capital are paid). True, according to many politicians and experts, this form of support resonates only with the marginalized segments of the population or those who already create large families. For the middle class, this is not a motivation.
