Natural population decline is one of the most urgent problems in the world. A situation arises as a result of the predominance of mortality over fertility.
The concepts of "natural population decline" and "population growth"
Birth and death rates are processes that have a decisive influence on the demographic situation in a particular state or in the world as a whole. Both indicators are quantitative. The birth rate reflects the number of newborns for a certain period in a certain territory, calculated, as a rule, as a general coefficient - the number of live births per 1000 population. In addition, the birth rate can be determined by such indicators:
- age-specific fertility rate (births per 1,000 women of the same age);
- total fertility rate (the number of newborns in a certain area for a certain period per woman).
Mortality is defined as the ratio of the number of deaths for a certain period and in a certain territory to the population. The lowest mortality rate to date has been recorded inQatar, Kuwait and the United Arab Emirates, the largest - in Swaziland, Lesotho, Botswana and other countries with low living standards, he alth care, HIV epidemic.
Birth and death rates have a direct impact on other statistics in demography, such as natural decline and population growth. Natural population decline (or a negative rate of natural increase) is fixed if the death rate exceeds the birth rate. Otherwise, we can talk about natural growth, which is the basis of population growth.
List of countries by population decline
The greatest natural population decline is typical for many countries of Eastern Europe. The list of depopulating states (according to the rate of natural population decline from the worst demographic situation) includes:
- Bulgaria. The death rate in Bulgaria is almost one and a half times the birth rate for several decades.
- Estonia. Part of the natural decline in the population in Estonia is accounted for not only by the change in the ratio of births and deaths, but also by the outflow of migrants, including Russian speakers.
- Latvia. The natural decline in Latvia is also significantly affected by migration processes.
- Ukraine. Political instability, falling living standards, civil war and loss of territories - all this, together with a decrease in the birth rate, are the main reasons for the natural decline in the population in Ukraine.
- Belarus. PopulationBelarus has been steadily declining for several years in a row.
- Georgia. The demographic situation began to deteriorate rapidly with the collapse of the Soviet Union.
- Lithuania. Like many union republics, the situation in Lithuania began to deteriorate after gaining independence.
- Hungary. Hungary has been on the list of low birth rate countries for several years now.
- Japan. The birth rate in Japan has been falling since the seventies. It's time to talk, if not about a catastrophe, then about a difficult demographic situation so precisely.
- Russia. The demographic problems of the Russian Federation will be discussed in more detail in the relevant section below.
- Slovenia. Today, for twenty-one thousand births, there are nineteen thousand deaths. The natural increase is positive, but the population growth rate leaves much to be desired.
- Moldova. Following the declaration of independence, the population of Moldova decreased by about three hundred thousand.
- Armenia. Population decline has been clearly seen since 1995.
- Bosnia. The state is experiencing a steady aging of the population.
- Croatia. The number of deaths exceeds the number of births, natural population decline has been observed in Croatia for several years in a row.
The map below graphically represents the world's natural population growth rate.
Dynamics of Russia's population by years
The 1897 census recorded 125 million people living inRussian Empire. At that time, 67.5 million people lived within the modern borders of the Russian Federation. The natural decline in the population of Russia since then and until 1994, when the decline in population growth began, was observed only once. So, in 1946, after the Great Patriotic War, the population decreased from almost 111 million (in 1941) to 97.5 million.
The graph below shows the natural increase and dynamics of births and deaths since 1950. It can be seen that the natural decline in the population (at that time not yet a negative natural increase, but a visible deterioration in the demographic situation), together with a decline in the birth rate, was observed in the postwar years. Then the situation stabilized. The next significant deterioration occurs with the collapse of the Soviet Union. Then, due to the unfavorable political situation and the deterioration of the quality of life of the population, the birth rate simultaneously decreased and the death rate increased.
Population of the Russian Federation
To date, the population of Russia is 146.8 million people. In the last few years (since 2010), the number of residents of the Russian Federation has been slowly but steadily increasing year by year. At the same time, the demographic situation as a whole leaves much to be desired.
Current demographic situation: main trends
The current demographic trends in the Russian Federation are as follows:
- lowest European male life expectancy (62.8 years);
- "demographic waves": extremelylow number of people born in the forties, seventies and nineties;
- extinction of the indigenous population is somewhat offset by migration gains;
- The number of children per woman has decreased from two (in 1988, the figure was 2.2 children) to 1.24, while more than two are needed for stable population growth;
- fertility increases due to regions with traditionally early motherhood;
- significantly reduced the number of Russians in the national composition, the indigenous population is replaced by migrants;
- Decrease in the quality of life that is both a cause and a consequence of the demographic crisis - many countries with a natural decline in population face adverse economic and political conditions, as well as other problems.
Main causes of natural population decline
There are several groups of factors that influence the emergence of a demographic crisis, but it is not always possible to single out the dominant factors.
- Demoeconomic: a general decrease in birth rates and an increase in mortality, which is typical for most post-industrial states.
- Socio-economic: declining living standards, uncertainty about the future, transition from socialism to a market economy, fear of having children.
- Sociomedical: general deterioration in the he alth of the population, mass alcoholism, drug addiction, increasedmortality rates.
- Socioethical: psychological depression of the population, high level of violence, popularization of abortion, collapse of the family institution, spread of childfree ideas, degradation of public morality.
Forecasts of the demographic situation in Russia
The forecast regarding the current demographic situation at the moment is not favorable. If we do not raise the birth rate already now, then by 2025, to stabilize the situation, an indicator of the total fertility rate equal to 3.41 children per woman will be needed.
With current trends, it can be expected that the population of the Russian Federation will decrease to 80 million by 2080. According to pessimistic forecasts, this will happen even earlier - in 2060. According to many scientists and politicians, with such numbers, it will not be possible to keep the territory of the Russian Federation under control within today's borders.
Ways out of the demographic crisis
It is generally accepted that the only way out of a difficult demographic situation is to strengthen the institution of the family with children. In practice, however, deeper changes are needed. Thus, it is necessary to ensure a stable political and economic situation, implement preferential taxation and lending to young families, strengthen the position of the family among other social institutions, and much more.
