Population dynamics: causes, features of accounting and consequences of population growth

2024 Author: Henry Conors | [email protected]. Last modified: 2024-02-12 02:55

The population of the Earth means the total number of people living on it. It is characterized by intensive, but uneven growth. In 2018, another maximum of 7.6 billion people will be reached. Now the number of inhabitants is growing by 80-95 million people annually. Since 1990, this figure has been within these limits, but until this year, the population has grown at an accelerating rate. As for the relative growth rates, they are gradually decreasing. Record values were reached in 1963, when the increase was 2.2% per year. Now it is about 1.2% per year. Moreover, in the last 2 years, the percentage has even slightly increased, which, of course, cannot be considered a positive achievement.

Population growth in 2018

In 2018, the population growth is 91.8 million people a year. ATOn average, there are 252,487 more people on the planet per day. This is the population of a fairly decent city. Thus, the dynamics of the world population is quite negative and may indicate the development of the problem of overpopulation.

Now demographic indicators are recorded in most countries of the world, and on special foreign websites all figures are displayed in real time. This allows you to monitor the situation from the comfort of your home.

Possible growth limits

Probably the critical value for the planet is the number of 10 billion people. After the exhaustion of the resources of fertile lands and many types of minerals, against the background of high population density, the quality of life of people can sharply decrease. This, in turn, will become a natural factor that will make further population growth impossible.

Examples of uncontrolled population growth with subsequent depletion of the food supply and depopulation are quite common in nature. This is especially true for cases when a person moves animals to new regions that do not have natural enemies there. However, the difference is that this occurs only in a small area. As for people, the problem will be global in nature and, possibly, provoke migration flows.

What migration can do

The fact is that the dynamics of the population of the regions of the world is quite different. A striking example is the population contrast between Russia and China. Very high in Chinapopulation density and growth is observed (including encouraged by the authorities of this country). In Russia, on the contrary, the population density is low, and the death rate exceeds the birth rate. Obviously, everything goes to the fact that the Chinese, sooner or later, will populate Siberia. Or, at least, they will use its resources, which is already happening, but so far on a relatively small scale.

The situation in India is somewhat more complicated, because it does not border Russia, but is surrounded by deserts, mountains, oceans. However, UN statistics show that the migration flow from India is quite significant.

Due to migration, there may be some balancing of population density between different regions of the globe, but even in this case, the population will not be able to grow indefinitely and the critical limit will still come.

Average population density

The population of our planet is extremely unevenly distributed over its surface. The largest concentration of inhabitants is observed in eastern and southern Asia, and the smallest - in the deserts and polar regions. In large metropolitan areas, population density can be enormous. If we distribute all people evenly over the land surface, then there will be 55.7 people per square kilometer.

Where the birth rate is highest

Despite the incredibly high population growth figures, the overall long-term trend is towards a declining birth rate. Many countries including Russia, South Korea, Japan, European countries,natural population growth is negative. The highest birth rate (from 4 children per woman) is observed in 43 countries of the world, of which 38 are in Africa.

At the same time, the situation in Asia is starting to change. So, in India, Myanmar, Bangladesh, now only 1.7-2.5 children are born per woman, which means that there is hope for population stabilization in the future. In China, the population is growing, but slowly. This is due to the support of the birth rate by the central authorities of this country, for which the economy is more important than the environment.

World population projections

No one knows for sure how the world's population will change in the future. According to the UN forecast, by 2050 it will increase by 2.2 billion people. This is slightly less than if we assume current growth rates until 2050. The reason for the slowdown may be ongoing urbanization, a change in women's attitudes towards the family, an increase in the level of education of people, the spread of fashion for homosexuality and other similar perversions. This can also be facilitated by the massive distribution of means of protection against conception, environmental degradation, problems with food and areas for growing crops, global warming, problems with overpopulation and other reasons. This means that the dynamics of the population of the Earth can show a tendency towards its gradual stabilization. However, this will probably not happen soon.

As for the dynamics of the population of the countries of the world, according to the UN, the population will decrease most strongly in Japan, Germany, Russia, Poland, China, Ukraine, Thailand, as well as in Romania and Serbia. Population decline is also possible in other regions of Asia. At the same time, it will grow rapidly in Africa.

What do Russian sociologists think

According to domestic experts, sooner or later depopulation tendencies will prevail in the world. Even as life expectancy rises, declining birth rates could lead to a decline in the world's population. According to Igor Beloborodov, the main causes of depopulation will be divorces, abortions, homosexuality, and a change in attitude towards the family. In his opinion, this will have disastrous consequences for the economy and geopolitics. However, he does not write which ones.

Another specialist, Anatoly Vishnevsky, also holds an opinion about the upcoming depopulation, but his opinion is directly opposite regarding the consequences. He believes that a decrease in the population will have a beneficial effect on the development of mankind and will help reduce the anthropogenic burden on the environment, as well as slow down the process of depletion of non-renewable natural resources. In his opinion, the optimal number is 2.5 billion people, which was observed in the middle of the 20th century. To achieve this result, it is necessary to reduce the world birth rate to below two children per woman. So far, nothing like this has been observed, with the exception of certain countries.

However, according to Anatoly Vishnevsky, such a result canbe achieved naturally. If by 2100 the population increases to 11 billion people. (UN forecast), this will lead to a rapid depletion of resources, followed by the death of most of humanity. As a result, only 2–3 billion people will remain on Earth. Such a prediction is, of course, apocalyptic.

The situation in Russia

The scenarios for Russia are not too optimistic. Now the dynamics of the country's population is largely determined by the flow of migrants. Associate Professor of the Department of Sociology of Moscow State University A. B. Sinelnikova believes that in the countries of Western Europe and in our country the indigenous population will die out and be replaced by migrants from China and other Asian countries, who will make up the majority of the country's population after 2050. As a result, the dynamics of the population and the composition of the population may become completely different than now.

Danger of overpopulation

The growth of the world's population is not controlled by any norms and regulations. The UN is making no effort to mitigate the problem, which creates the risk of serious consequences in the future. The higher the population density, the more food and resources it consumes. This means that the burden on the environment is higher and the rate of climate change is faster. In turn, climate change is increasing the risk of major droughts or floods, as well as pest infestations that can destroy crops. If this happens in a densely populated country, the consequences can be dire. It turns out that humanity itself cuts the branch on whichsitting.”

Obviously, food prices will rise in the future, and the main reasons for this will be:

1. Continuous population growth leading to depletion of fertile land.
2. Global climate change directly related to this growth, which will lead to increased risks to crops.

All this, in the end, can lead to mass migrations and even military conflicts. The greatest threat will come from Africa.