Social forecasting: analysis of methods

2024 Author: Henry Conors | [email protected]. Last modified: 2024-02-12 02:40

Social forecasting is one of the methodologically most complex forms of studying the prospects of processes and phenomena. In the natural sciences, forecasting is used to prepare for the consequences of a given phenomenon. For example, the identification of a high probability of an earthquake or volcanic eruption is followed by informing and evacuating people outside the relevant area. The subject area of social forecasting is social processes, the outcome of which can be influenced, therefore the value of this type of research of prospects is not only in preparation for future circumstances, but also in the ability to model them.

In practice, the following methods of social forecasting are used:

Method of peer review

This method consists in collecting and researching the opinions of experts on the prospects of the studied social phenomenon. The effectiveness of this path is determined by the competence of the experts, the correctness of the questions put to them and the quality of processing the answers received.

The Delphic oracle method, a variation of the expert assessment method, is distinguished by a complex scheme for questioning experts: to exclude the influence of the group onthe opinion of each specialist, the names of other qualified respondents are not disclosed to the experts, each independently answers the questions. Next, the responses are analyzed and the dominant position is determined. After that, the respondents receive the same survey, the arguments of specialists whose opinions are very different from the majority, and the opportunity to change their position. The procedure is repeated until a consensus is reached.

The main advantage of the method is the exclusion of group influence on individual opinion, since it cannot be implemented until a consensus has been reached.

This method can be compared with the last election of the Pope. The decision was made by an anonymous vote from the third time. It is obvious that during the elections, none of the candidates managed to perform a “good deed” that could change the opinion of voters. According to custom, the procedure cannot be completed until one of the candidates receives 77 votes. It is logical to assume that long-term social forecasting using the Delphi method is similar to the definition of “hospital average temperature.”

Social modeling. Highlights

Social forecasting can be done through mathematical modeling. This method allows you to consider many options for the development of events in their correlation with various factors. As in the case of the Delphi method, there are some difficulties with long-term forecasting. But the advantage of this method is that the expert doesconclusion, guided not only by their own judgments, but also by the results of "machine" data processing - the variety of options for the future object under study.

Extrapolation method

The advantage is the identification of patterns of the phenomenon under study based on the analysis of its history and the consideration of these data in the forecasting process. Social forecasting through extrapolation is the use of the most complex formulas to achieve valuable results, however, not guaranteeing one hundred percent reliability.

Social forecasting is an effective tool for managing social processes in the hands of those who have the opportunity to influence them.