Will South Ossetia join Russia in the near future?

2024 Author: Henry Conors | [email protected]. Last modified: 2024-02-12 02:55

Last year, representatives of domestic media actively discussed whether South Ossetia would become part of Russia. Today it has not lost its relevance due to the fact that the leaders of both states are making every effort to sign an agreement on integration and alliance.

Members of "United Ossetia" for joining

In the parliamentary elections, the United Ossetia faction won the majority, and its leader Anatoly Bibilov, answering the question of whether South Ossetia would become part of Russia, said that he would like this reunification.

At the same time, earlier Russian media wrote that Moscow is not very interested in such political consolidation. Despite this, the head of the ruling party was ready to determine whether South Ossetia would become part of Russia through a popular vote.

First hearing and entry question

After the first parliamentary hearings, Anatoly Bibilov said that the deputies of the legislature came to the conclusion that the issue of erasing the administrative borders between the above states should be decided by the Ossetian people.

Earlier, the question of whether South Ossetia will become part of Russia was repeatedly raised by political scientists in Tskhinvali, but one of the phrases expressed by Bibilov gave a clear understanding of how the ruling party is set to reunite with the Russian people.

“We firmly follow the declared slogans and will not allow any double standards in our political intentions. The question of whether South Ossetia will join Russia this year will be put to a referendum. At the same time, one should not forget that a consolidated and capable parliament should initiate such a decision,” the politician said.

Nevertheless, talk of holding a referendum to decide whether South Ossetia will join Russia this year did not cause a serious stir.

In the past, the assistant to the head of the Russian state paid a visit to Tskhinvali to discuss with the Ossetian authorities the possibility of building modern real estate in the capital of South Ossetia. At that time, Anatoly Bibilov did not miss the opportunity to once again declare that the fate of the question of whether South Ossetia will become part of Russia in the near future will depend on the will of the people.

Public opinion

It should be noted that a certain part of political scientists in Tskhinval doubted that the decision to destroy the administrative borders between Russia and South Ossetia would be taken at a popular vote. Not the last role in the issue of accessionplays the opinion of the inhabitants of North Ossetia, because they, like no one else, are close to the mentality of South Ossetians. Moreover, if, for example, the question of whether South Ossetia will become part of Russia next year is resolved positively, in fact, such an act will not be considered as expanding the borders of the above-mentioned republic. In reality, there will be a consolidation of the north and south, as a result of which one subject of the Russian Federation will appear - Ossetia.

What the poll showed

It should be noted that representatives of the RSO public do not have a common point of view on whether South Ossetia will become part of Russia. The war with Georgia, it would seem, put all the dots on the “and”. Either way, statistics are stubborn things.

So, will South Ossetia become part of Russia? Who is for it? It turned out that only 79% of the respondents. The same number of residents of South Ossetia support the policy of Anatoly Bibikov, head of the United Ossetia faction.

It should be emphasized that North Ossetians also disagree about whether South Ossetians should reunite with Russians. Our citizens also gave ambiguous answers to the above question

About 12% of respondents said that at the moment it is not advisable for Russia to erase the territorial borders with South Ossetia, as this may entail additional sanctions from the US and Europe.

It is noteworthy that a huge part of the respondents, when asked whether Western sanctions have a negative impact, gave a negativeanswer.

About 8% of the respondents were against the RSO becoming part of Russia, as they are confident that South Ossetia is an economically weak republic, which could negatively affect the development of several regions of the North Caucasus.

One way or another, but many Ossetians believe that Bibilov's initiative with a referendum will not be implemented and will remain in the status of a promise. It should be noted that the issue of joining the Republic of South Ossetia to the Russian Federation was already put up for a referendum in the 90s of the last century, but it had no political continuation.

It is very likely that today's referendum will be formal.

Risk of Georgian aggression

For many political scientists, it remains a mystery whether South Ossetia will become part of Russia. The border with Abkhazia has been established for more than a year, but despite this, many remember the monstrous Georgian aggression. In this regard, South Ossetian officials came out with a proposal to conclude a military alliance with Russia. Chochiev, the head of the RSO presidential administration, commented on the situation as follows: "We turned to the head of the Russian state with a request to conclude an agreement on military cooperation in order to consolidate the grouping of troops and strengthen social guarantees in South Ossetia." The official added that the project would be discussed as soon as possible.

“We recommended that international organizations influence Tbilisi to get the Georgian authorities to join the agreement on the non-use of force. ToUnfortunately, in the course of numerous discussions, the leadership of Georgia refused to sign the above agreement, and I am convinced that no one will give us guarantees that aggression from the above state will be ruled out. I would like to note that the attack on South Ossetia and Russia in 2008 took place with the then existing guarantees on the non-use of force,” Chochiev said.

Threat of annexation

Certainly, today many are concerned about the question of whether South Ossetia will become part of Russia. Abkhazia and Russia have already developed a "single security contour" for themselves, and it would be reasonable for RSO to create it for themselves as well. The Abkhazian state has concluded a cooperation agreement with the Russian Federation, which involves strategic partnership and the formation of joint armed forces.

The head of the Russian state Vladimir Putin stressed that about 5 billion rubles will be allocated to Abkhazia this year, and financing will be provided annually in the amount of 4 billion rubles.

With this in mind, the RSO authorities should unequivocally decide whether South Ossetia will become part of Russia. Abkhazia and Russia are strategic partners, but, unfortunately, not everyone approves of such cooperation. In particular, the representative of the Georgian government, Zurab Abashidze, condemned the international integration of Abkhazia and Russia, positioning it as “a step towards the annexation of Abkhazia.”

A reaction from NATO was also expected. The above agreement on strategic partnership and cooperation representativesThe North Atlantic Alliance was not recognized. The United States explains this by saying that the document was concluded in violation of the territorial integrity and sovereignty of Georgia.

One way or another, but at the present time the question does not lose its relevance: "Will South Ossetia become part of Russia"? Abkhazia has already made its choice, and it is safe to say that it did not lose, but, on the contrary, won.

Will election promises be kept

For many political scientists, it remains unclear why the Ossetians did not immediately follow the path of the Abkhazians and did not conclude a partnership agreement with the Russian Federation. Will South Ossetia become part of Russia? Abkhazia - Russia or not? Will RSO join the union? The ambiguity in these issues is partly dictated by the peculiarities of the mentality of the Ossetian people and the unpreparedness of officials for radical changes. As already emphasized, the situation began to change when Anatoly Babilov won the parliamentary elections, who promised to reunite Russia and the South Ossetians during the pre-election debates.

Military Cooperation Agreement

To be fair, it should be noted that more than eighty cooperation agreements have been signed between South Ossetia and the Russian Federation. It would seem, where else? One way or another, there was a lack of an official document that would regulate military coordination between the Armed Forces of South Ossetia and the 22nd base. The military department of Russia concluded with the leadership of the Republic of South Ossetia a huge number of economic agreements: on pensions, on supplies, on conferring awards and titles. However, there was a gap in the legal field when it came to militarycooperation in the event of force majeure.

It should be noted that the Abkhazian authorities reacted with hostility to the news of the intention to conclude the above agreement: they say, if a Russian general commands the republican army, then the independent state will lose its sovereignty. Residents of South Ossetia, on the contrary, reacted with approval to the signing of an agreement on military cooperation.

The ruling party is active

The head of the United Ossetia party, Anatoly Bibilov, in turn, constantly stated that, under favorable conditions, the legislative bodies of both states would be able to ratify the agreement in the very near future. He even gave an approximate date when this could happen - the first decade of 2015.

Also, Bibilov added that the signing of a document on strategic partnership with Russia will enable both countries to get out of the impasse into which they were driven by the Geneva agreements.

“These agreements have existed for more than a year, but there is practically no effect from them. There are also no concrete steps and absolutely no measures are being taken to agree on a non-aggression pact,” the official said.

The head of the United Ossetia faction did not rule out that the opposition represented by the Tbilisi leadership would put obstacles in the way of the negotiating parties.

“Georgian officials have become completely dependent on the decisions of the United States, so the factor of Abkhazia and Crimea in Tbilisi willplay an important role. Whether we conclude an agreement with Russia or not, they will still put spokes in our wheels,” Bibilov stressed.

For many RSO parliamentarians, the fundamental question remains whether South Ossetia will become part of Russia or return to independence. Opinions are divided, but a significant part of the deputies are in favor of the integration of Russia and South Ossetia.

"The main national idea of our people is the establishment of partnership relations with the Russian Federation in the social and military-political sphere, up to the destruction of administrative borders," one of the RSO parliamentarians noted.

"Insidious" plan

As noted above, Tbilisi officials have their own interpretation of the question of whether South Ossetia will become part of Russia or return to Georgia. They are categorically against cooperation between Russia and South Ossetia in the military sphere.

“Representatives of Georgian diplomacy are already trying to do everything possible to prevent the creation of the above alliance. Authoritative international organizations and Western politicians are on the side of Tbilisi, who consider the actions of the Kremlin as one of the forms of occupation and annexation,” the media reported.

A negative assessment of the rapprochement between Russia and South Ossetia was given by Paata Zakareishvili, who is an official in charge of issues of civil equality in the Georgian government. He added that the Kremlin is playing a dishonest game with South Ossetia and Abkhazia, since at first it recognized the independence of these republics, and today it is trying to take away the once approved sovereignty, inducing the parties to sign illegalinternational legal agreements.

One way or another, but the opposition forces accuse the Georgian Dream cabinet of inadequacy and urge it to pursue a tougher policy. The faction of the former head of Georgia Mikheil Saakashvili - the "United National Movement" - approves the introduction of additional sanctions against Russia by the West. In 2008, the European Union was not aware of how dangerous the actions of the Russian authorities in relation to neighboring countries. Today it's Ukraine's turn. However, it is very important that the European community give guarantees of protection against Russian aggression not only to Ukraine, but also to Georgia. This position was expressed by Georgy Baramidze, representative of the Nationals Party.

In addition, Saakashvili's supporters are calling for the termination of all agreements with the Russian Federation.

Kremlin reaction

Last year, representatives of the presidential administration repeatedly stated that the head of state Vladimir Putin, and the head of the Russian Foreign Ministry Sergei Lavrov, and the current Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev rejected the idea of erasing the administrative borders between Russia and South Ossetia. This decision was also dictated by the fact that Moscow previously officially recognized the independence of South Ossetia, and this circumstance is taken into account primarily in building international relations with the neighboring republic.

The principle of independence also forms the basis of cooperation in the military sphere, despite the fact that some eightyagreements.

Of course, first of all, the interest in the unification of Russia and South Ossetia was felt in Tskhinvali itself, and the solution of this issue depended to a greater extent on the will of the Ossetian people. In fairness, it should be noted that, according to sociologists, the public of South Ossetia feels more protected from external threats when it is under Russian jurisdiction. But in the conditions of sovereignty, the guarantees of calm seem unsteady to them. In any case, the South Ossetians should strive to create a capable and economically developed state, which is unthinkable without cooperation with the Russian Federation.

Today's state of affairs

Most recently, the head of the Russian government, Vladimir Putin, addressed the parliament with a draft law providing for the ratification of an agreement with the Republic of South Ossetia on integration and alliance. Only after the deputies approve the normative-legal act, it will be finally known whether South Ossetia will become part of Russia. According to the documents that the parties plan to sign, Moscow and Tskhinvali are expanding the boundaries of cooperation to a large extent. First of all, we are talking about an agreement that provides for alliance and integration. Serious emphasis will be placed on that part of the agreement, which spells out the provisions on expanding partnership in the military sphere.

Of course, one doesn't have to be seven spans in the forehead to draw some simple conclusions that follow from such cooperation between the Russian Federation and South Ossetia. First, representatives of the Russian military department will be at the head of the combined armed forces. Secondly, the territorial border of South Ossetia, from a legal point of view, will coincide with the state border of Russia.