Inflation is a different form of depreciation of money. It is typical for most countries of the modern world and is considered normal. Slight inflation is a stimulus for the development of the economy, but only if it is expressed solely in a slight increase in prices. High monetary or any amount of hidden inflation is quite dangerous and highly undesirable.
According to Rosstat, inflation in Russia is currently low.
History of inflation in Russia
In Russia, the origin of the inflationary process dates back to the 50s-60s of the 20th century. During the Soviet era, it was expressed mainly in the appearance of a commodity deficit. At the same time, product quality and prices were relatively stable, as they were regulated by the state.
A real burst of inflation was observed in the 90s. Its main manifestation during this period was the rapid rise in prices. At the same time, the availability and quality of goods changed to a lesser extent.
A feature of inflation in recent years was the decline in the quality of food and some other types of products against the backdrop of a moderate increase in prices (that is, hidden inflation prevailed). The availability of goods was less affected.
The causes of inflation in Russia can be:
- monopolization of the economy and its various parts;
- various distortions in the economy;
- growth of the dollar against the ruble;
- high government spending, including military;
- growth of the apparatus of civil servants.
Inflation dynamics in the past according to Rosstat
After the relative stability of prices during the Soviet period, a period of their sharp growth began. Their rise began in 1991. This was due to the overly abrupt transition from a planned to a market economy, which made it practically unmanageable. In 1992, prices rose by 2,500 percent at once! Then the rate of inflation began to gradually decrease. In 1993 it was 9.4 times, in 1994 - 3.2 times, in 1995 - 2.3 times. At the same time, the total rise in prices over these years reached an almost astronomical value of 1.8105, after which inflation dropped sharply. In 1997, its level was only 11%. This drop was caused by measures taken by the government to combat hyperinflation.
A new rise in inflation (up to 84.4%) occurred in 1998. This event was due to the developmentfinancial crisis. Then the rise in prices began to decline again. But even in the 2000s, it was several times higher than in developed countries. In general, the inflation rate was in the range of 8 to 13 percent per year. The top figure refers to 2008, when the average cost of goods and services increased by 13.3%. This was due to the global economic crisis. Moreover, our country quite successfully overcame it, and the economy soon continued to grow.
Rosstat inflation data
To determine the magnitude of price increases, rather complex methods are used. According to Rosstat, the inflation rate by years shows improvement in the situation in recent years. After a long period of moderate price growth, starting from 2015, this process has accelerated significantly. In 2015 and 2016, the figures were in the region of 10-15%. At the same time, food and medicines have risen in price to a greater extent than equipment and certain types of services. Individual services (for example, carpet cleaning) have even decreased in price. A negative factor was the fact that wages were practically not indexed, whereas, as before, this happened systematically.
Decrease in inflation continued throughout 2016 and 2017. The minimum level was reached at the beginning of 2018 and amounted to just over 2%. This is twice as low as predicted by the Ministry of Economic Development. By May 2018, inflation, in annual terms, increased slightly, approaching 2.5%.
Official inflation forecasts
Assumed by the end of the yearannual price growth can rise to 3-4%. The same level is predicted for 2019. For Russia, this is a very low value.
As for food, according to the Ministry of Economic Development, the level of price growth may depend on the weather situation. Obviously, drought, if it affects plant growth, could lead to a relative shortage in the food segment and drive up food prices.
Another important factor is fuel prices. Now the situation in the energy market is relatively stable and favorable. The probability of unforeseen events for this year is very small. However, in the event of a sharp drop in oil prices, the dollar may rise, and the ruble, accordingly, depreciate. Then the prices for imported goods will rise, and after them a new round of inflation, including hidden one, may develop. The recent drop in oil prices is a prime example of this. Moreover, the standard of living of the population is still quite low, despite the recovery in prices for raw materials.
Conclusion
Thus, according to the Federal State Statistics Service, the inflation rate has fallen to its minimum in recent years. It is projected to remain that way in the coming years.
