What is Brexit? The word that did not leave the front pages of all the world's media in the summer of 2016 means Britain's exit from the European Union. And Brexit is the main goal of the opposition and individuals (Eurosceptics, for example, or nationalists) in the United Kingdom.
Last year, a referendum was held on the issue of UK membership in the EU. Needless to say, this was not the first such event. The same referendum was held in 1975, and the issue was raised in the government earlier, when an opposition government came to power. So, Brexit: what is it and why is it dangerous for relations between London and Moscow, for the UK itself, and for the entire European Union as a whole?
Definition
How to understand the word "Brexit"? The neologism, which was widely used by the media on the eve of the referendum in the UK in 2016, is formed from the words "Britain" (Great Britain) and "exit" (exit). Brexit is an abbreviated name for the process of the UK leaving the EU and all the events that are associated with it. English neologism is formed by analogy withGrexit. This word refers to the possible exit from the European Union of Greece.
Brief background
The Treaty of Rome, which eliminated all barriers to the free movement of people, goods and capital between Germany, Italy, France, Luxembourg, Belgium and the Netherlands, laid the foundation for the European Economic Community. The UK applied to join the EEC in 1963 and 1967, but both attempts were unsuccessful. The then President of France, Charles de Gaulle, vetoed the entry of the United Kingdom into the community. The reason for this was a number of aspects of the British economy, which allegedly did not correspond to European practice.
The third successful application was filed by Great Britain in 1972, when de Gaulle resigned. The United Kingdom became part of the EEC under the Conservative government of Edward Heath. The Prime Minister believed that Europe would soon become a superpower and push the United States out of all significant positions in the international arena.
The 1974 elections were won by the opposition led by Harold Wilson. The new government promised to reconsider the issue of UK membership in the EEC and hold a referendum. In a referendum in 1975, the majority of citizens (67%) were in favor of maintaining membership in the economic community. All major political parties and media supported this decision.
In 1993, the Economic Community became the European Union. In connection with the change in organization (from an economic union turned intopolitical), the issue of membership has become relevant again.
In the early nineties, the Independence Party appeared in the United Kingdom, in which the majority were Eurosceptics. In 2004, the party took third place in the parliamentary elections, in 2011 - second, in 2014 - first. This was the first time that another political party other than the Conservatives and Labor came to power in the UK.
2016 referendum
The UK EU membership referendum was held on 23 June 2016. All citizens of the United Kingdom and the Commonwe alth countries, British citizens living abroad for no more than 15 years, and members of the House of Lords were eligible to vote. The counting of votes was completed by 7:30 am on June 24. With a margin of 3.78%, the supporters of leaving the EU (Brexit) won. This put an end to an issue that had been debated in the United Kingdom since 1974.
Media and government reaction
David Cameron, then Prime Minister, announced that he would step down before the fall of 2016 as soon as it became known that Brexit had won. He understood that if the people of the country decided to take a different path, new leadership was needed. In fact, he resigned even earlier, on July 13, 2016. Theresa May has already signed the Brexit notice.
The media comments were not long in coming either. The BBC noted that the leaders of the Independence Party had already dubbed June 23 "Independence Day", but the courseThe pound fell sharply to the 1985 mark. CNN did not forget to mention that the UK is the first country to vote to leave the European Union, and RussiaToday paid more attention to the panic on the stock exchanges. The commotion was provoked by this political event.
TASS stated that the referendum is only advisory. This means that the results can still be considered by Parliament, which theoretically can make a different decision. You can also hold another referendum. But still, D. Cameron has already promised to fulfill the will of the people of Great Britain, who spoke in favor of leaving the European Union.
Consequences for the UK
What is Brexit for the UK? The European Union is the UK's main trading partner. The EU countries account for 45% of exports, 53% of imports and almost half of investments. If Brexit does happen, this will mean that the UK needs to enter into new trade agreements with European countries so that British firms can continue to sell their goods on the European market without restrictions.
There are several options for implementing the decision of the referendum on Britain's membership in the EU, and several scenarios for the development of events:
- Norwegian script. The UK will leave the EU and join the European Economic Area. This will give the country access to the European market (except for the financial sector) and free from EU rules in domestic politics: agriculture, law, fisheries, internal affairs and otherdirections.
- Swiss script. The United Kingdom will follow the example of Switzerland. The country is not part of either an economic or a political union, but is part of the Schengen. Switzerland also concludes separate agreements for each sector of the economy.
- Turkish script. The UK will enter into a customs union with Europe, which will give access to the European market. There will be no access in the financial sector.
- Agreement on the Swiss model. The UK may conclude a free trade agreement with the European Union with guaranteed access to the financial sector.
- Complete rupture of relations. The UK may cut ties with the EU completely.
Implementation of the referendum decision
The referendum on the UK's membership in the European Union put an end to the issue of Brexit. What it is and what it means for the UK is in general terms clear, but how did the country even intend to leave the EU?
No state before the UK has expressed a desire to leave the EU, but this does not mean that such a possibility does not exist. Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty allows for the withdrawal of any country from the European Union, but so far no formal mechanism for the correct exit has been developed.
Scenarios: exit features
Brexit may take about two years, but this period can be extended by decision of the parties. Stages of UK exit from the European Union:
- EU legal notice that launches 50article of the Lisbon Treaty.
- Beginning of negotiations between the United Kingdom and the EU. The European Council must be provided with a draft agreement. It must be approved by at least 20 countries in which at least 65% of the EU population lives. If this happens, the draft is ratified by the European Parliament.
- If no agreement is reached within two years of official EU notification, all European Union treaties cease to apply to the UK. If all 27 EU member states agree, negotiations could be extended for a longer period.
- The UK formally leaves the EU either upon ratification by the European Parliament or two years after notification (automatically) if no agreement is reached.
Position of the European Union
After the exit of the United Kingdom, the EU will lose part of its sales markets, and the euro will rise against the pound. In addition, mainland guest workers will return to Europe. One can expect a wave of separatism against the European Union in all its countries, especially in Finland, Sweden and Greece. Also, border control at the entrance to the Channel Tunnel will significantly increase the travel time on the Paris-London route.
Relations between Moscow and London
UK is in the Brexit stage. Why does Moscow need it, and is it needed at all?
It is believed that Russia is easier to work with a few individual countries than with a cohesive Europe. Also Brexitcan weaken the influence of the United States of America on the EU. UK policy towards Russia is expected to remain fairly tough and unlikely to change in the near future.
