The phrase exit poll has become quite popular these days, especially during periods coinciding with elections. But what does it mean?
Let's turn to dictionaries
Exit in translation from English means exit, poll - counting of votes, voting. Therefore, both words together can be interpreted as voting when leaving the polling station.
The Russian spelling of this phrase has not yet settled down. In the press and other sources, there are various options - from "exit poll" to "exit poll". But the latter, although spelled out in Lopatin's spelling dictionary, seems to be the least successful. In English, it is not pronounced “s”, but “z”, and doubling the letter “l” seems inappropriate. Therefore, it seems reasonable to many to write this phrase in general in English.
What all this is for
The procedure for polling the population after voting in recent years has been intensively used in the sociological practice of various countries of the world. On condition of anonymity, voters who have just left the polling station are asked who they voted for. It is assumed that the majority of respondents have no reason to lie, so the results of the polls should show an approximate picture of the outcome of the elections and maysome degree of control. In addition, these data allow you to accumulate and analyze information about the electorate (which segments of the population prefer each candidate). Another task that can be solved by exit poll is the operational forecast of voting results. And finally, during the election process, polling data is widely covered by television and the press. This makes the electoral process more spectacular and attracts the attention of all segments of the population.
From the history of polls
The first clarification of the opinion of those who voted when leaving the polling station took place in 1967 in the United States (the governor of Kentucky was elected). In 1972, exit polls were already held throughout the country when an American president was elected. The methodology for this event was developed and tested by W. Mitofsky, director of the Center for Elections and Public Opinion Polls. Over the following years, this center was repeatedly reorganized, as a result of which the company Mitofsky International was formed, which began to conduct similar surveys in other states. Such clarifications of the will of citizens quickly gained popularity, as they gave the organizers important information. And, what is especially valuable, in the countries of several time zones (USA, Russia), the speed of obtaining data in the regions that voted allowed the election headquarters to respond to the situation in those districts where the elections had not yet taken place, perhaps even adjust their strategy. That is, the polls were a real tool for influencing the electoralprocess.
Believe it or not?
However, not all researchers believe that the exit poll is a good tool to test the transparency of elections. There are several reasons not to trust the output polls too much. First, how honest are the people who answered? In a full democracy, their words should probably be believed, but people are often afraid to tell the truth or refuse to answer at all. You should also take into account the mentality of the population, its willingness to make contact. Thus, there are cases when people who asked questions during the Russian presidential elections later shared their impressions on social networks. Their responses were often rude or statements like, "Voted for Chuck Norris." Is it possible in such a situation to assert that the polling data will reflect the real picture of voting?
And here is another interesting consideration of Russian sociologists. If the confidence in the electoral system in the country is high enough, then the society does not really need such polls as a means of controlling the voting. If there is no particular trust in the authorities, and there are assumptions about a possible falsification of the elections, then who will prevent the exit poll from being falsified in the same way?
And again on the same topic
So what is the exit poll - good for society or a useless undertaking? Opponents of such polls have a lot of arguments. Now, before the elections, it is customary to conduct preliminary surveys of the population (often with the help of Internet technologies). But such information, made publicbefore the vote, can seriously affect its outcome. A voter who sees that his candidate does not enjoy a rating may change his mind, or even ignore the election altogether. Of course, such a situation cannot be considered correct. In addition, there is a great temptation to manipulate the poll data to create a situation convenient for one of the candidates.
And yet, such polls are treated more with a plus sign than a minus, and their data is trusted. Thus, in Ukraine, during the 2004 presidential election, a real scandal arose due to the discrepancy between the exit poll data conducted by various sociological centers, as well as with the official voting results. The scandal ended with the first Maidan and the third round of the presidential elections, which showed a completely different result. On the other hand, in the presidential elections in Ukraine in 2014, the real result of voting almost completely coincided with that obtained as a result of polls. So the exit poll is interesting.
