Earthquake in Kyrgyzstan. Seismologists' forecasts

2024 Author: Henry Conors | [email protected]. Last modified: 2024-02-12 02:55

Kyrgyzstan is in a seismically dangerous zone. Residents of the country are no strangers to such natural disasters as earthquakes. They know little about him. In Kyrgyzstan, an earthquake is a frequent uninvited guest. The Republic is in a fever several times a year.

From history

In Kyrgyzstan, an earthquake is a frequent phenomenon, mentioned even in folk epic. Only in a year there are up to 3.5 thousand of them of varying degrees of intensity. Over the past ten years, the largest earthquakes have been in the Kochkor district of the Naryn region (2006), the village of Kan Kadamdzhai district of the Batken region (2011), in the Tyup district of the Issyk-Kul region (2013), in the village of Kadzhi-Sai Ton district of the Issyk-Kul region (2014). All these earthquakes did not cause human casu alties, but caused a huge loss to the inhabitants of the republic.

Earthquake in Kyrgyzstan in November 2014

At the end of 2014, the inhabitants of the republic had to again feel the devastating consequences of the elements. The first impact occurred around midnight local time on November 17th. In the area where the epicenter of the earthquake in Kyrgyzstan was located, 45 kilometers east of Osh,the force of shocks up to 7 points was recorded. The nearest cities were not spared by the disaster - seismologists registered up to 4 - in Naryn, and 3.5 - in the capital, 5 points were felt in Karakol. Aftershocks occurred in the early hours of November 18.

Director of the Institute of Seismology of the National Academy of Sciences of the Kyrgyz Republic K. Abdrakhmatov explains this behavior of the earth by the aftershock phenomenon - a series of less intense tremors that occur after the main shock. A similar phenomenon is observed only during powerful earthquakes, the number of shocks is numerous.

Daytime the situation repeated itself again. The entire scale of the disaster was felt especially strongly by residents of high-rise buildings. Fortunately, this earthquake did not claim any human lives. But the infrastructure of cities and villages suffered significant damage. Five groups of the Ministry of Emergency Situations and the Civil Protection Commission worked at the scene. Many families (152) were left without a roof over their heads. More than 400 houses have been declared emergency by the Ministry of Emergency Situations.

Seismologists' forecasts

The territory of the republic is located at the junction of the Ferghana depression and the Alai uplift. Invisible to the human eye, but at the same time, the continuous movement of the earth's plates causes earthquakes. Seismologists have established in the course of ten years of observing the laws of nature that after more or less intense earthquakes, a period of calm sets in, and the active phase of strong shocks begins decades later. So says the Gutenberg-Richter law.

BIn Kyrgyzstan, a strong and destructive earthquake is a rare occurrence, and the frequency of strikes depends on the intensity of the previous ones. At the same time, strong earthquakes occurred on the territory of the republic (8.3 magnitudes on the Richter scale). It is possible that if they have been here before, they may repeat again. This is how everything turns out in scientific papers and research results.

In fact, in Kyrgyzstan, an earthquake is a frequent and quite noticeable phenomenon. In the long term, the republic may expect several earthquakes. The earth has woken up, and the recent earthquakes in Pakistan and Afghanistan speak in favor of this. More than 1.5 thousand people became their victims.

Seismologists of no country in the world can predict the exact date of an earthquake.

It seems that there is no need to wait for cardinal changes in the habits of nature. Which confirms the next revelry of the elements.

Last earthquake in Kyrgyzstan

As scientists predicted, the last time the pulse of the earth was heard in Kyrgyzstan was on New Year's Eve 2016. According to the Institute of Seismology, the earthquake occurred in the early morning near the Kyrgyz-Uzbek border. The strength at the epicenter reached 5 points, the depth was up to 10 kilometers. There were no human casu alties and destruction. Only in the last month of last year, the seismological service of Kyrgyzstan registered 14 earthquakes.

Earthquake in Kyrgyzstan: casu alties

The Republic is constantly shaking. Fortunately, most tremorspass without human casu alties, leaving behind only destroyed buildings. But the most powerful earthquake in Kyrgyzstan led to tragic consequences, placing the country at the top of the news feeds of all media in the world.

The earthquake in the village of Nura, Alay district, Osh region, has become the most devastating in the last decade in the republic. It happened in October 2008. The strength of the tremors reached 8 points. This time in Kyrgyzstan, the earthquake caused huge human casu alties. The element claimed 75 human lives. On October 5, the whole world learned about this small village in the south of the country. 144 buildings were destroyed. 93 children and 49 adults were hospitalized with injuries. Tremors were felt by neighboring Tajikistan, Uzbekistan and China.

What should be done?

As the main security measure in many countries of the world, the Unified Information System operates. As soon as the instruments detect seismic activity, the signal is sent to important government facilities, production, and citizens receive SMS mailings. The time until the earthquake wave goes from the epicenter to the settlement can be decisive for saving hundreds of human lives.

From the beginning of an earthquake, a person has literally 15-20 seconds to react, leave the room or take the safest position. Employees of the Ministry of Emergency Situations warn that it is necessary to leave the premises only if there is confidence that the person will not be overwhelmeddebris from adjacent high-rise buildings. Therefore, being in a multi-storey building, it is better to take a position, clinging to the load-bearing wall and as far as possible from the windows. In Kyrgyzstan, the Ministry of Emergency Situations conducts educational and explanatory work with the population so that every citizen of the republic knows the elementary rules of behavior in an earthquake.