Main macroeconomic indicators: dynamics, forecasts and calculation

2024 Author: Henry Conors | [email protected]. Last modified: 2024-02-12 02:40

The main macroeconomic indicators include summary indicators of consumption, manufacturing, income and expenditure, imports and exports, economic growth and welfare of the country's population, as well as some others.

Main macroeconomic indicators

These include:

• gross national product (GNP) - the market total value of the final product created with the help of factors of production owned by the citizens of a given state, regardless of their location;
• GDP - an indicator with a similar name, instead of the word "national" containing the word "domestic" - it means the same, produced in the state for a certain period of time by all manufacturers.

They are the main macroeconomic indicators.

• net NP (NNP) is the GNP for a certaintime period minus depreciation charges;
• national income (NI) reflects the total income of all residents of the state for a specific period of time;
• personal income (PI) reflects the total income that the population of the country receives after deducting social insurance payments, corporate income taxes and retained earnings from the NI, taking into account transfer payments;
• Personal disposable income (PDI) reflects the amount available to the population for household spending;
• national we alth (NW) - the total benefits created over a certain period as a result of labor activity and at the disposal of society on a certain date.

System of National Accounts

The main macroeconomic indicators are listed in it in the form of a specific system and special tables.

National accounts are understood as a set of considered indicators characterizing the production, use and distribution of GNP and ND.

With the help of the SNA, the main macroeconomic indicators are determined at a particular point in time.

The most widely used in national and international practice of the above indicators are GNP and GDP. Let's take a closer look at them.

GDP

One of the main macroeconomic indicators is GDP. It can be calculated on income, expenses and value added (VA). These three methods can be found in the literature under the names:

• byend use;
• distributive;
• by production methods.

In the first method, GDP is calculated as the sum of net exports, gross investment, government and general spending.

When calculating by the second method, all possible factor incomes are summed up with the addition of net indirect taxes that apply to business and depreciation.

When calculating by the third method, each previous cost is added to the next (added), created at subsequent production stages. DS in its final expression is equal to the total cost of the created products.

GDP, as the main macroeconomic indicator of national accounts, in turn, is divided into real and nominal.

If it is calculated at the prices that were valid for the billing period, it belongs to the second named variety. If the calculation is carried out in constant prices, then one speaks of real GDP.

Thus, the price level has no effect on it, which suggests that based on the analysis of this main macroeconomic indicator of the country, one can judge the physical volume of production.

At the same time, nominal GDP can undergo dynamics both due to physical volume and due to the price level. The latter is often understood as GNP.

GDP in manufacturing

In this case, this main macroeconomic indicator of the economy meansthe value of products created for a specific time period in the territory of a specific country.

Economic sectors are subdivided as follows:

• services and agricultural production;
• primary, secondary and tertiary sectors, which respectively use natural resources, process products of other industries and serve people with their production activities.

In this case, GDP includes only products that were produced during the period under review.

GDP in distribution

Here, this main macroeconomic indicator is calculated as the sum of income and material costs of economic entities for a specific time period.

In this area, there are 3 components of GDP:

• income of the owner of factors of production;
• indirect taxes;
• depreciation of deductions.

When PD exceeds depreciation, the economy has a net increase in capital, which indicates production growth, all other things being equal.

When these figures are equal, they speak of stagnation in production, since the stock of means of production is unchanged in the economy.

An excess of depreciation over IA indicates a decline in production, all other things being equal.

GDP in consumption

In this area, this indicator reflects the total costs incurred in connection with the production of products for a specific time interval. What alreadynoted earlier, the components of GDP in consumption include:

• government procurement of products;
• gross investment (which is the net investment and depreciation expense used to increase real capital);
• personal consumption - spending on current and durable items, as well as those on various services;
• net exports - its value excluding the cost of imports.

The concept of gross national product

As the main macroeconomic indicator, GNP characterizes the level of economic development of a particular state.

Differences between GDP and GNP usually do not exceed 1-2%. As is clear from the previous material, for the first of the main macroeconomic indicators, the methods for calculating them are reduced to the territorial principle. When calculating GNP, the national approach is used, that is, only the results of foreign economic activity are taken into account. That is, GNP is the sum of GDP and net exports.

Main macroeconomic indicators and their calculation are the same for a closed economy.

As well as for GDP, GNP distinguishes between nominal and real given indicator. For these two main macroeconomic values, the GDP/GNP deflator is determined, which is equal to the ratio of their nominal volume to the real one.

Interrelation of considered indicators of macroeconomic development

GDP and GNP are the basis on which other macroeconomic indicators are determined.

These include net nationalproduct (NNP), which is understood as the difference between GDP and total depreciation.

If indirect taxes are subtracted from NNP, we get ND.

System of main macroeconomic indicators

It is used to describe quantitatively the processes taking place in macroeconomics. These indicators are aggregated and are determined based on the calculation of more detailed indicators.

This system includes two groups of indicators, which will be discussed below.

Volume and cost indicators

They show the dynamics in the volume of production in a particular state and the structure of its distribution depending on the channels of its use.

To calculate these indicators, 3 price groups are used:

• current, in which those of them, in which trading operations were carried out, are used for calculations;
• comparable, taken at a certain fixed level;
• conditional, given in the cond. units, correlated with prices for similar products in world markets.

Volume-cost indicators are compared in time using the second or third prices, and in space - only according to their third variety.

The main data indicators include:

• NB.
• SOP - the total social product - the total value of manufactured products in a particular country in a certain time period. Ceteris paribus, the SOP is greater for the state in which longer technological chains predominate, since for ita double offset of the cost is typical, when each part that is part of the product is first taken into account separately, and then as an integral part of this product. In this regard, this indicator does not apply to the main macroeconomic ones.
• GNP.
• Net (Final) Product (NNP).
• ND. It is divided into produced, which is obtained as a result of economic activity within the state, as well as distributed, which, in addition, includes income or losses from foreign economic operations.

Distributed ND is classified into:

• consumption fund, which includes personal and public consumption;
• accumulation fund, which includes fixed and working capital;
• reimbursement fund, which includes reimbursement costs and insurance premiums.

The sphere of money circulation in these indicators is characterized by such monetary aggregates as М0-М3.

Indicators of dynamics and price levels

A typical indicator in relation to the cost of living is the consumer price index, which is determined based on knowledge of the consumer basket.

Dynamics of the price level is characterized by indices of retail and wholesale prices. They represent the ratio of the total cost of goods sold through a particular network at current prices to those at base prices.

A weighted price index is also calculated, which is determined by the ratio of the total costs of retail and wholesale tradeat current prices to base prices.

The situation in our country

In relation to the Russian Federation, the main macroeconomic indicators are the same as those discussed earlier. In 2016, there was a downward trend in retail trade turnover. Consumer activity began to decline, which is due to the fact that the population began to prefer to keep money in banks and other ways of saving money.

The dynamics of the main macroeconomic indicators in Russia in 2016 compared to 2015 shows that GDP fell slightly over the analyzed year (by 0.6%), trade turnover and real incomes also decreased (by more than 5%).

Comparing the dynamics of the main macroeconomic indicators in the world and our state, it can be noted that the Russian Federation is in the middle range: its GDP is higher than the world average, but lower than that of European countries. Production begins to focus on the production of technological and competitive products.

Today the economic sector is largely dependent on the sale of hydrocarbon raw materials, since the budget revenues are largely formed through the sale of gas and oil.

Forecasting the considered indicators

It is carried out at the state level for the purposes of:

• do-it-yourself calculations;
• use in budget planning.

The forecast of the main macroeconomic indicators is carried out for a certain time period in the future. He mustbe constantly adjusted to reflect the latest information at the moment.

When making forecasts, it is necessary to compare the dynamics of the main macroeconomic indicators in Russia and the world. On a national scale, it is necessary to carry out a forecast of the dynamics and volume of GDP, the index of price dynamics, the volume of sales of goods, investments, labor costs, profits, indicators of imports and exports. These forecasts are further taken into account by various ministries and departments.

Macroeconomics in the Budget Code

According to Article 183 of the RF BC, the main macroeconomic indicators of the budget used for its preparation are the volume of GDP for the next financial year and its growth rate this year, and the inflation rate current).

In conclusion

The main indicators of macroeconomic development are GDP and GNP, on the basis of which similar indicators of the second level are calculated. When forecasting and planning the budget, the volume of GDP and the level of inflation are taken into account. These indicators should be taken into account not only in the dynamics of one state, but also to compare them with the world ones. If we evaluate the economic development of the country by GDP, then the Russian Federation is somewhere in the middle of the list, somewhat ahead of the average global growth rate, but lagging behind those in the EU countries.