The military-political situation in the world: an overview of events and analysis

2024 Author: Henry Conors | [email protected]. Last modified: 2024-02-12 02:54

The world is changing before our eyes, the right of the strong is already the prerogative of not only the United States and its satellites, as they would write in the good old days. Russia followed the same path and used force in Syria. Beijing's official rhetoric is becoming increasingly harsh as a country that not only has economic ambitions, but also intends to become the third state in the world that is capable of resolving issues by military means. Three critical nodes - Syria, Ukraine and the Korean Peninsula, where the interests of many countries clashed, determine the military-political situation in the world. Against the backdrop of these "hot" spots, Afghanistan, which is in an unbalanced state and can explode at any moment, has remained a little away from the main information flow.

North becomes more accessible

Global warming probably still exists. The climate in the Arctic has become warmer. This fact and the development of new technologies for the extraction of natural resources have significantly increased the interest in the region in many countries of the world. And not only countries located in the Arctic zone. China, Korea, India, and Singapore want to join the development of the Northern Sea Route and hydrocarbon production in the northern latitudes. Regional players - Russia, USA, Canada, Norway, Denmark- increase their military presence in the polar regions of their countries. Russia is restoring military bases on the Novaya Zemlya archipelago.

NATO countries are monitoring the air situation in the region and are also building up their intelligence and military capabilities. Depots of weapons and military equipment have been organized in Norway for the deployment of reinforcement forces. The head of this country made a proposal at the NATO summit in Poland to develop a new alliance strategy that would allow the permanent presence of the combined naval forces in the northern latitudes. It was also proposed to involve more widely the armed forces of the non-regional countries of the alliance and the neutral countries - Sweden and Finland - in joint exercises. Both Russia and NATO countries conduct military exercises, air patrols of the Arctic regions and strategic aviation flights. Political peace in the Arctic exists against the backdrop of increased armed presence.

No change to the west

Probably few people in Russia and NATO countries, except for frank hawks, believe in an open military clash. But an analysis of the military-political situation in the world shows that the policy of strategic containment and weakening of the economic potential pursued against Russia is undoubtedly a clear threat to security. The military infrastructure of the alliance is being built along the entire western Russian border. Four battalion tactical groups are being deployed in the B altic countries and coordination centers are being created to receive and deploy additional forces, the same centers have been created inBulgaria, Poland and Romania. This year, interceptor missiles will be deployed at missile defense bases in Poland and Romania, which have long been said not to be directed against Russia. NATO officials announced that with this they covered the southern direction from a ballistic missile attack.

The administration of US President Donald Trump intends to force the countries of the North Atlantic Alliance to spend the prescribed 3% of the country's budget on defense. Which in the foreseeable future will significantly increase the number of weapons concentrated near the borders of Russia. But still, economic restrictions formally linked to certain events pose a great danger.

Ukraine is also the West

A significant threat to Russia's national security is the conflict in the eastern regions of Ukraine. The hope for peace after the conclusion of the Minsk agreements, which determined the roadmap for the cessation of hostilities and the reintegration of certain regions of the Luhansk and Donbass regions, has not been realized. The region remains highly likely to resume hostilities. Mutual shelling of the armed forces of Ukraine and the self-proclaimed republics continues. The initiative to introduce peacekeeping forces, proposed by both Russia and Ukraine, did not materialize due to different understandings of the question of where to deploy them and who will be included in these forces. This conflict will for a long time influence the military-political situation in the world as one of the points of struggle against US global dominance. The situation in eastern Ukraine is largelyis a reflection of the situation in the world, where there is an increase in confrontation between global players. For Russia, this is a very unpleasant conflict, not only because of the proximity to the borders, but also because it can always serve as an informational occasion for the introduction of new sanctions.

Southbound

Since the withdrawal of Soviet troops from Afghanistan, the threat to national security from this direction has only increased. Despite the fact that Russia does not have a direct border with this country, the possible penetration of terrorists and allied obligations oblige to closely monitor the situation in the region. In reviews of the military-political situation in the world, it is noted that in recent years there has been an increase in the number of terrorist and religious extremist gangs. And this cannot but cause concern. The answer to the question of what is happening in the world today is impossible without studying the situation in Afghanistan.

Almost a third of the militants come from the former Central Asian republics, including the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan, which has already participated in the preparation of terrorist acts in Russia, the Islamic Jihad Union and others. Unlike the largest armed force of the Taliban, which aims to create an Afghan caliphate, these organizations want to create an Islamic state in the Central Asian republics. In the southwest, the main factor destabilizing the military-political situation in the world, since the interests of many states also clash here, is the increasenumber of countries where an armed struggle against international terrorism is being waged - these are Syria, Iraq, Yemen, Libya. The situation in the Nagorno-Karabakh zone, where Armenia and Azerbaijan oppose each other, is periodically aggravated. Georgia aspires to NATO and the European Union and wants to restore its territorial integrity. On a positive note, the Georgian Dream - Democratic Georgia party, which came to power, announced that the only way to reunite with Abkhazia and South Ossetia was peacefully.

Syrian Crossroads

A once-prosperous Middle Eastern country, almost completely destroyed, is suffering from one of the longest military conflicts of the 21st century. Starting as a civil war, this war quickly developed into a fight of all against all, in which dozens of countries participate. The clash of numerous interests affects not only the situation in the region, but also the entire modern military-political situation in the world.

The government troops of the Syrian Republic, with the support of Iranian forces and the Russian military space forces, are fighting the terrorist organization ISIS and armed opposition groups, which, to one degree or another, cooperate with various extremist groups. In the north of the country, Turkey has introduced its military grouping, which is fighting the Kurds. The United States and allies oppose Russia, Iran and Syria, supporting the opposition and periodically launching missile attacks on Syrian government forces, accusing Damascus of using chemical weapons. Israel also inflictsmissile strikes on targets in Syria, citing their national interests.

Will there be peace

The military-political situation in the world is already being compared with the situation during the Caribbean crisis. So far, a direct military clash between Russian and American troops has been avoided. The Syrian government, with the assistance of the Russian center for the reconciliation of the warring parties, managed to establish a ceasefire with many armed opposition groups. The fighting is mainly against ISIS units, Turkish troops, with the support of the Syrian opposition in the north, are also pushing the militants. Kurdish detachments, supported by the aviation of the Western coalition led by the United States, are advancing on the city of Raku. The territory controlled by ISIS has decreased significantly.

February 15-16, Astana (Kazakhstan) hosted another round of negotiations to establish peace in Syria. With the mediation of Russia, Iran, Turkey, Jordan, the participation of the UN and the United States, representatives of the Syrian government and ten opposition groups discussed issues of maintaining a truce, exchanging prisoners and monitoring the current situation. The parties are still far from starting direct negotiations, but the first step towards peace has been taken. Inter-Syrian negotiations with the opposition are also taking place in Geneva, where the main obstacle was the demand for the immediate departure of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad. But at the last meeting, the United States tentatively agreed that Assad would stay until the new presidential elections in Syria. There is no breakthrough, but there is hope. Another platform for peace negotiations -the National Dialogue Congress in Sochi, co-organized by Russia, Turkey and Iran, the main guarantors of the truce in Syria.

East is a delicate matter

The main factor influencing the development of the military-political situation in the world is the strengthening of China as a regional and global player. China is modernizing its armed forces. The United States seeks to maintain its leadership in the region by strengthening military ties with the countries of the Asia-Pacific region. Including using the contentious issues of China with Vietnam and the Philippines on the islands in the South China Sea and trying to act as an international arbiter. Under the pretext of protecting against the North Korean nuclear threat, last year the United States began building a THAD missile defense base in South Korea, which was seen by China as a threat to its national security. China imposed sanctions on South Korea, forcing it to promise not to deploy any further missile defense systems. Japan is building up the power of its armed forces, seeking to increase the role of the army in solving political issues, and has been able to use military force abroad.

Korean way

The most important driver of news for almost the entire 2017 was a squabble between US President Donald Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong-un. An advanced Twitter user called Kim a rocket man, in response he was also showered with unseemly nicknames, and this continued until the New Year. The occasions, of course, were not so cheerful. North Korea in February 2017 committedlaunch of the rocket "Kwanmenson" with a satellite on board. Given the fourth nuclear test that Pyongyang conducted on January 6, all countries regarded this launch as a test of a ballistic missile. Experts calculated that the range of the missile could reach 13 thousand kilometers, that is, it could theoretically reach the United States. In response, the UN announced sanctions by unanimous decision of the members of the Security Council, including Russia. During the year, the DPRK made several more launches and announced its ability to equip missiles with nuclear warheads. In response, the UN introduced a new package of sanctions, in addition, the United States introduced its own economic restrictions, regarding these launches as a threat to national security. Donald Trump said: "These are the toughest sanctions ever imposed on a single country." The US President also announced the possibility of a military solution to the Korean problem and sent his aircraft carriers to the Korean Peninsula. Pyongyang responded by announcing the possibility of a retaliatory nuclear strike. The situation in the world has become aggravated, the possibility of various military scenarios is being seriously discussed by experts. All news coverage of what is happening in the world today began with the situation around Pyongyang's nuclear program.

Olympic reconciliation

Everything changed on the Korean peninsula after the North Korean leader's New Year's conciliatory speech, where he spoke about the possibility of participation in the Olympic Games in South Korea and a dialogue about the current situation. The parties held a series of high-level talks. The North Korean team took part in the Olympic Games,countries exchanged performances of musical groups. This helped to reduce the tension of the military-political situation in the world, everyone understood that there would be no war yet.

The delegation of South Korea, headed by the head of the National Security Administration under President Chung Eun-yong, held a series of negotiations with all interested parties. After negotiations with Kim Jong-un, they personally reported the results to US President Donald Trump, Chinese President Xi Jinping, Japanese Prime Minister Shinjiro Abe and top officials of their countries. Based on the results of shuttle diplomacy, an inter-Korean summit and a meeting between the US president and the leader of the DPRK are being prepared. Michael Pompeo, CIA director, future secretary of state, visited Pyongyang on April 18 and held talks with Kim Jong-un.

Rest of the world

Latin America and Africa also contribute to the military-political situation in the world. The main problems of Latin American countries lie more in the political and economic plane: increased competition and struggle for natural resources, low control over certain territories. The issues of combating drug trafficking and criminal armed groups, which sometimes control entire regions of the country, are very acute. In the region, the political situation is influenced by disputed territorial issues, which are still being resolved through negotiations. But the countries of the region are also intensively building up the power of their armed forces. In Africa, the main threat to the stability of the military-political situation in the world is stillis Libya, where an armed conflict continues between supporters and opponents of radical Islamization with the participation of local tribes. In many other parts of Africa, extremist groups operate in drug and arms smuggling and illegal migration.

In general, the features of the current military-political situation in the world show a possible increase in the number of regional conflicts and challenges to Russia's national security.