Probably, few people remain indifferent to information about the change in the exchange rate of the Russian currency. The reasons for the ups and downs of the ruble become the topic of the most heated debate. Meanwhile, over the past five years, the national currency has presented the Russians with more than a dozen surprises. There is an opinion among a number of domestic economists that what is happening with the ruble now is a direct consequence of the events of 2008. It is partly true, but the current dynamics of the national currency is much more dependent on the current state of our finances and the current political situation.
A memorable 2008
Practically everyone has their own opinion about the causes and consequences of a serious global crisis. In principle, today it is not so important whether it was provoked by the players of the international financial market or was the result of a global conspiracy. Much more interesting is how these events turned out for the domestic financial system. Here are a few figures that clearly illustrate the consequences of the crisis for Russia:
- Within one year54 credit institutions were liquidated in the country, and 47 of them were deprived of banking licenses.
- The dollar rose from 23.4186 rubles. on 2008-01-08 to 29, 3804 rubles. as of December 31, 2008 (by 25.4% over 5 months); by August 1, 2009, the dollar was already worth 31.1533 rubles. (33.1% - growth rate for 1 year).
These figures clearly show what a blow as a result of the 2008 crisis was inflicted on Russian finances. Our citizens were able to recover from it only after a few years.
2009-2011
During this period, the Russian economy was gradually recovering, and the financial market was striving to return to its previous positions. Despite the achieved stabilization of the ruble exchange rate and the growth of production that has been outlined in certain industries, the ruble will continue to gradually become cheaper.
Of course, this process was not linear, but in general, the trend was quite obvious: at the beginning of 2010, the dollar cost 30, 1851 rubles, in 2011 - 30, 3505 rubles, in 2012 - 32, 1961 rub. Thus, over 3 years, the ruble has fallen in price by 6.68%. Everyone recognized this dynamics as quite acceptable: both the Government of the Russian Federation and the population of the country. The question of what is happening with the ruble exchange rate worried the Russians rather weakly during this period. As a result, the interest of citizens of the Russian Federation to purchase foreign currency in cash, as well as to save it in the form of bank deposits, has decreased.
2012
Unfortunately, all good things come to an end: as early as May 2012the ruble began to decline against the leading world currencies. Thanks to the massive foreign exchange interventions of the Central Bank, as well as its repeated assurances about the stability of domestic finances, the depreciation was then stopped. However, the dollar nevertheless rose in price by almost 2 rubles, and the euro - by 2.5.
Russians are again interested in the question of what is happening with the ruble. Today, leading domestic economists and political scientists tend to explain the then depreciation of the national currency by traditional reasons for our country:
- declining oil prices;
- problems of the European economy;
- fears of investors about a new wave of the financial crisis.
At that time, the sharp depreciation of the ruble in the press was interpreted as the necessary exchange rate dynamics, designed to revive the country's economy and prevent it from falling into stagnation. Who exactly was right is hard to say. However, regardless of the real reasons that caused the depreciation of national money, the population panicked to buy cash dollars and euros, and investors rushed to urgently save their assets. Despite the ongoing export of capital from the country, the regulator managed to stabilize the ruble exchange rate and keep it within the boundaries of the dual-currency basket: at the end of December 2012, the dollar cost 30.3727 rubles, the euro - 40.2286 rubles.
2013
Throughout 2013, the rate of our currency continued to fall smoothly. Seeing the extremely negative reaction of the population to what is happening with the Russian ruble, the Central Bank once againonce resorted to large-scale buying it to maintain the course. Approximately 28 billion dollars were spent for these good purposes, however, the exchange rate of the national currency against the dual-currency basket fell by almost 3 rubles over the year.
Obviously, this year was not the most successful for the ruble. However, optimists seriously predicted that holding the Sochi Olympics would help stabilize the exchange rate by increasing the influx of additional foreign currency from sports tourists into the country. By the end of the year, even people who did not know any particular financial problems were seriously worried, looking at what was happening with the ruble. 2014, however, most Russians met with the hope of stabilizing the exchange rate of our money, improving the state of the banking system and the coming recovery of the country's economy.
2014
The year began with not the most joyful events for the Russian ruble: already on January 15, the Central Bank moved the boundaries of the floating currency corridor up by 5 kopecks. In January, such actions were repeated 6 times, and by the end of the month, the bi-currency basket was already worth 41.0284 rubles. In February, this trend continued, and on February 26, 2014, the historical exchange rate maximum was renewed again. Then the cost of the dual-currency basket reached the threshold of 41.9952 rubles. For 2 months of the current year, about $12 billion was spent on stabilizing the domestic currency exchange rate, which made it possible to bring it to a certain equilibrium state.
Sport as a factor in stabilizing the exchange rate
The holding of the Olympics partly slowed down the depreciation of the ruble. Positive newsreasons, a decrease in the degree of tension among the Russians, as well as an increased inflow of foreign currency into the country, allowed the regulator to keep the Russian currency exchange rate at an acceptable level without additional interventions. And in April, the ruble bravely tried to win back its positions. By the time of the May Day holidays, the bi-currency basket was already worth 41.8409 rubles. Thus, for 4 months of the current year, the value of the dual-currency basket increased by 9.4%.
According to the forecast of the editor of the information section of Forbes magazine Ivan Vasiliev, given by him in early January, in 2014 the ruble exchange rate against the dual-currency basket will fall by about 7.5 rubles. (or 20%). While maintaining the existing ratio in the dollar / euro pair, the ruble exchange rate against both currencies will fall by the same 20%.
Factors affecting exchange rate dynamics
What is happening with the ruble now was not even in the most gloomy forecasts. Leading analysts are urgently revising the calculations of the value of the national currency, made by them at the end of last year. However, there are factors that directly affect the ruble exchange rate, but cannot be quantified.
The ongoing events in the south-east of Ukraine, the negative attitude of some European and American politicians towards the position taken by Russia on this issue, make the introduction of various sanctions against our country quite likely. Since the domestic economy is already deeply integrated into the world economy, this can significantly shake the stabilityRussian banking system and reduce the rate of the domestic currency. What is happening with the ruble is quite understandable - it is gradually becoming cheaper. What will happen to its course tomorrow, almost no one undertakes to predict.
Western view of the Russian currency
Our main problems, according to the IMF experts, today are the tense geopolitical situation, the possibility of imposing tough sanctions on the part of Western financial institutions, accelerating inflation, budget deficit. It is declared that the Russian economy has smoothly crept into recession, so the forecasts of most foreign experts regarding the prospects for our currency are gloomy. After S&P downgraded Russia's sovereign credit rating to BBB-, it became clear to everyone that further devaluation of the ruble was not only possible, but inevitable.
Long-term forecasts from Russian financial gurus
Today, almost none of the officials of our country can clearly explain to citizens what is happening with the ruble. Most experts' forecasts regarding the coming months of 2014 boil down to the fact that the ruble will continue its traditional fall. Strictly speaking, the main discussions are conducted only about its pace. Obviously, it will not be possible to keep the ruble exchange rate within the framework provided for by the 3-year budget (2014 - 33.40 rubles, 2015 - 34.30 rubles and 2016 - 34.90 rubles) will not succeed, since By the end of April 2014, the dollar was already worth 35.70 rubles. Moreover, in early March, the dollar already managed to reach the level of 36 rubles, and the euro broke through the historical maximum of 50 rubles.
The head of the Central Bank Elvira Nabiullina confirmed on April 25, 2014 in an interview to the Ren-TV channel that the regulator does not intend to carry out large-scale interventions in the foreign exchange market. What is happening with the ruble, the Central Bank calls the necessary correction. Most likely, the transition to a floating exchange rate of the ruble will be implemented not by the beginning of 2015, as it was declared earlier, but already in the summer of 2014.
