The question of whether there will be a crisis in Russia, which has been heard very often lately, has exhausted itself. He is.
Systemic, with all the trappings and negative dynamics of indicators of economic development. The next logical question is: "What to do in a crisis and how long will it last?" Expert opinions on this issue vary. As well as an assessment of what is happening. Since everything is ambiguous: the geopolitical situation, the state of the economy, and the proposed ways out of the critical situation.
Therefore, the approach will be legitimate when authoritative opinions are taken into account, and not only domestic specialists. In the diversity of information, one must be able to develop the ability to quickly filter and accept information that is based on facts, logic and common sense. We will try to understand the nature of the crisis and answer the old questions that arise in the new historical realities.
Origin of the term
Crisis (Ancient Greekκρίσις - decision, turning point) a state that characterizes the discrepancy between the form and content of any social phenomenon, process and requires an immediate solution. Depending on the social nature, the crisis can be:
- economic;
- social;
- financial;
- demographic.
Crisis can be classified by scale, level, and other parameters. In the article, the subject of analysis is the social nature of the phenomenon.
The crisis has historically developed in the judicial practice of the period of antiquity and meant the actual conduct of the trial.
In terms of content, it means a turning point in a process that requires new forms and methods for further development. The socio-economic crisis in Russia, which currently characterizes the state of society, is not limited by the scale of one country. Moreover, the modern crisis, for example, goes far beyond the bounds of a particular social institution. According to experts, it is complex in nature, affects the structure of power, the economy, the financial institution, and is associated with the country's geopolitical situation. To assess what is happening, we will try to reveal the economic nature of the social phenomenon.
Economic crisis
One of the main terms, if we talk about the economic characteristics of society, is production. In the sequence of historical forms of production, the history of the economy was studied. In the modern approach, the sphere of production,consumption and distribution of a social product can be analyzed in different paradigms, that is, knowledge systems with given vectors. Therefore, it is advisable to talk about a certain model of economic production and its inherent economic indicators, state markers.
To understand what the economic crisis in Russia is, the reasons that led to it, you need to evaluate the modern model of the economy. But this is quite difficult to do. It is called the "departure" from the model of state regulation. Only the presence of a model in the past is stated. The present Russia is most often referred to as "primary production" and the direct dependence of the state of the economy on the cost of oil on the world market is indicated. If there is no specific model, we will limit ourselves to some indicators. Economic markers of modern Russia:
- decrease in GDP;
- reducing the scope of production;
- departure from the state model of regulation;
- dependence of the state of the economy on the price of raw materials (oil);
- mass export of capital abroad;
- significant impact of foreign capital on the banking sector.
In order to designate an economic model, direction vectors must be defined: the presence of a strategy, the basic values on which it is based, and a content component that includes some ideology of the model. At the moment they are not. The Russian economy, designated in the 90s of the last century as a rejection of the previous development model, has remained in essence a transitional one. Why she left, it's clear - from the statesocialist system of regulation. Where is she heading? It remains a mystery even to the initiated. Karl Marx called this state "the loss of the old world without gaining a new one."
Social metamorphoses
Economy cannot be distinguished from other forms of social life. The crisis in Russia manifests itself in all social institutions of society. This is confirmed by the facts about a number of bankruptcies of enterprises from large businesses and a significant reduction in the segment of small and medium-sized businesses.
Due to innovations in the field of taxation in 2013, the number of individual entrepreneurs has almost halved. Entrepreneurial activity itself has not disappeared, but the way of existence has changed. The share of the shadow economy has increased, which also affected the state budget.
The revocation of licenses from banks and the financial crisis in Russia, which manifested itself since August 2013, have become real indicators of the beginning of a systemic crisis. In the social sphere - an increase in wage arrears and an increase in unemployment.
These factors have not yet become widespread. But social tension is showing up. That is why the law on bankruptcy of individuals was adopted. For seven and a half years, he was under consideration. And now it is urgently introduced not from 2016, as previously thought, but six months earlier, from the summer of 2015. Since the critical mass of the insolvent population has reached its limits, and this may result in another social crisis.
Consequencesthe collapse of Ukraine is also one of the causes of social tension. Diversion of funds from the budget, financing of resettlement and support programs for refugees, investments in the Crimean economy - all this is a good resource prospect. However, the present requires the attraction of significant reserve funds.
Every crisis has its historical face
Each of the troubled periods has the same dynamics and meaning, but different historical characteristics. The crisis in Russia in 1998 led to a technical default. The failure to fulfill obligations under federal loan bonds and state treasury obligations led to a loss of confidence on the part of both external and internal creditors. For the first time, the national currency drastically lost its weight, more than three times, against the dollar. It was the most difficult period of the economic downturn. The consequences were quite severe. The high level of criminalization of society and the wild ways of the formation of initial capital characterized this period.
The crisis in Russia in 2008 manifested itself in the financial and economic sphere. This stage revealed the degree of dependence of the Russian financial system on foreign capital. Large banks went bankrupt. The real estate market collapsed, followed by the stagnation of the construction market. The downturn was linked to a global collapse in the mortgage lending system.
Appearing as a banking crisis in Russia provoked instability and subsequent recession in all social spheres. The outflow of deposits in financial institutions in just one month led to a reduction in fundson the accounts of individuals for more than fifty billion rubles.
Crisis in Russia and ways out
Since, as it turned out earlier, the critical state is when you need to make decisions quickly and look for new forms that meet the demands of reality, it remains to understand what these quick decisions are?
A number of proposals and new approaches to the development strategy are contained in the traditional annual address to the Federal Assembly of the President of the Russian Federation Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin.
In his speech, the characteristics of the economic state of the country are given, the theses of the strategy for further development are outlined. And in conditions when the crisis in Russia has declared itself in full measure, the speech can be regarded as options for getting out of it. In particular, the following measures are proposed:
- expansion of economic space, participation in the Eurasian project;
- replacement of imports of goods by exports of products;
- production support;
- development of the Far East region;
- output within three years on production development indicators that exceed the average economic indicators of the world market;
- creation of industrial production;
- offshore capital amnesty;
- financial support for non-resource industries.
The speech of the President and the press conference that followed, at which the moments that aroused public interest were touched upon in more detail, showed the readiness of the Russian government for a radical concentration of resources andbreakthrough in the country's economy. A breakthrough to a new level of social organization and the search for resources within the country, and not abroad.
Crimea, crisis, Khodorkovsky
The modern era can be characterized as a search for its own model of development of society as a whole. The latest crisis in Russia requires special regulatory measures. This is due to the political alignment of forces at the present stage. The difficult situation is aggravated by economic sanctions from the US and Europe, which are of no economic interest to either side of the economic confrontation.
The main reason is the global crisis. Russia is betting on the development of Crimea and the inclusion of this independent state in economic interactions with Russia. The strengthening of the Russian Federation does not meet the interests of a number of states, which is why the application of sanctions is easy to read as an attempt to weaken Russia's influence in the global economic space. The well-known oligarch Khodorkovsky notes the shortsightedness of the authors of the “alienation” of the Russian community. Russia is ready for negotiations and resolution of contradictions that provoke a political crisis. Russia is ready for a constructive dialogue. Will the West respond to this?
The euro is creeping, the ruble is falling, Russia will break through
Freedom of movement of currency indicators, orgy of exchange rates, which is observed by the whole world, shows the real state of things.
Experts in economics, politics, strategy - everyone is trying to assess the situation. Moreover, the forms are different, from political PR to a forecastastrologers. Recognition of the fact that some of the leaders "guessed" the course in the last months of the year does not become easier for anyone. How does this not confirm the economic competence of predictors.
It is clear that in the actions of the head of the White House there is an attempt not only to weaken Russia economically, but also to lead to a state of panic and imbalance in society. The social crisis in Russia, which is expected from an artificial aggravation of the already difficult situation in the country, may subsequently have the opposite result. The economic collapse of Russia, which the "customers" are waiting for, will not take place, if only for the reason that the potential of the state is far from being exhausted. The Russian resource lies in the ability to find a solution not outside, but inside one's own country and make another breakthrough, which is comparable with the scale of the Russian space.
Land of paradoxes
Russia is an unpredictable country. Its most resourceful state is manifested in resistance to the crisis. The tougher the situation, the stronger the way out of it.
And this is confirmed by the words and position of the President of Russia Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin during a press conference following the results of his address to the Federal Assembly. He predicts the possibility of overcoming the crisis in Russia in two years, and this is under the worst-case scenario.
An attempt to turn the situation, provoked by external and internal factors, in favor of one's country is worthy of respect. President Putin's speech at a press conference on December 18, 2014 showed that Russia is not concentratinglooking for ways out of the crisis. This is a narrow understanding of the situation. The country is changing its strategy in such a way as to make a qualitative breakthrough and, using its own capabilities, reach economic indicators that are higher than the world average.
Resource potential of Russia
Another crisis in Russia created a situation of economic isolation from the old Europe.
Under such conditions, we had to look for ways out of a critical situation without waiting for outside support. In order not to burden oneself with the question of whether there will be a crisis in Russia again, it is necessary here and now to create the prerequisites for a he althy economy. And for this, the country has every opportunity:
- agro-industrial complex showed growth this year, amounting to 5 percent, a record stock of grain crops was harvested;
- Russia has increased its resource thanks to Crimea;
- EU sanctions dictated tough conditions for the development of our own industrial production, and this is the shortest and most reliable way to stabilize the economy;
- reorientation to the "Eastern" development option under the sanctions gave intensive development to the Eurasian industrial complex.
Philosophy of crisis
Crisis is a natural state of any living matter. Any development reaches its limit in a certain historical phase of dynamics. This is the state when the goal is optimally realized in the form of reality. The moment of external well-being carries a threat to this state. Why? Because if successfuldevelopment, the search for better options stops, and an undeveloped form of life immediately sets in - static, stagnation, recession and many other forms of a depressing state.
The first crisis in Russia at the beginning of the century was only a clue about the discrepancy between the amount of money and their quality. The money supply was not a consequence of the development of production. Infusions of foreign capital formed Russia's dependence on foreign investors. This is some form of lazy well-being. If its source is outside, then with any change in the situation, this well-being has no chance to be preserved.
Therefore, the 2008 crisis was a wake-up call about Russia's inefficient economy. According to a well-known expert in economics, the head of the Ministry of Economic Development, Mr. Ulyukaev, Russia is currently in a state of triple crisis: structural, economic and geopolitical.
Absolutely adequately assessing the state of Russian reality, Ulyukaev does not remove responsibility for what is happening from the ruling authorities. But it does not support the pessimistic expectations of the collapse of the economy.
There is only one brilliant solution on how to overcome the crisis - to look for sources of development of power within the country itself. And they, as both reality and history show, exist in abundance in the Russian state.
