The recent events around Crimea, which, depending on the point of view, are sometimes called "annexation" or "reunification", have raised hopes for a speedy solution to some territorial problems that have been frozen for decades. The bloodless and very quick actions of the Russian army on the peninsula aroused joyful expectations among a significant part of the population of the unrecognized republic, located between Moldova and Ukraine. The hope that Transnistria would soon become part of Russia seemed almost to come true.
Moldovan kinks
In 1992, the experience of resolving ethnic conflicts was poor. The Chechen war had just begun, Nagorno-Karabakh seemed like something far away, the events in Sumgayit seemed to be the product of some special Asian-exotic mentality, and Yugoslavia had not yet been bombed by NATO peacekeepers.
In the ecstasy of the acquired sovereignty, the leaders of the Moldovan "People's Front" overlooked the trend towards discontent among the inhabitants of a significant part of the territory of their country. August 1989 was markedthe jubilation of local nationalists who won major victories in the Supreme Council of the MSSR: the approval of the Moldavian language as the state (the only) language and the abolition of the Molotov-Ribbentrop pact. There was also a transition to the Latin alphabet, emphasizing the already complete “foreignness”. Somehow, in the heat of the parliamentary debate, no attention was paid to the fact that other languages that were successfully used by the population so far are being oppressed.
First referendum
The entry of Pridnestrovie into Russia was not planned at that time, even the most daring political science fiction writers did not dream of it. In order to pay attention not to the region that creates 40% of the country's GNP, in 1990 the Tiraspol leadership held a referendum, which was attended by 79% of voters dissatisfied with the policy of the nationally concerned parliament. The Pridnestrovian Moldavian Soviet Socialist Republic became a fact, but there was no talk of secession from Moldova. Almost 96% of Pridnestrovians simply wanted to be sure that their rights would be guaranteed, if not by official Chisinau, then at least by the government of the TMSSR. In addition, there was persistent talk about the upcoming reunification with Romania, and the inhabitants of the region wanted to secure the right to choose the country in which they were to live.
Another referendum
From a legal point of view, the collapse of the USSR was accompanied by numerous violations of international and Soviet laws, but no one paid attention to this then. Sovereignties were declared, and if a nationalflag, and the deputies began to sing a new anthem, then the matter was considered accomplished. So it was in Moldova, and not only in it. The parliament of the Gagauz autonomy did exactly the same, but this caused an instant accusation of separatism, and clashes began, so far costing "little blood." The unity of the country was supported by volunteers, called “volunteers” in a foreign manner, from Moldova itself and Romania.
June 1990. Deputies of the Moldovan left bank and Bendery vote for the preservation of the USSR. After the putsch of 1991, exactly 15 sovereign states appear in the expanses of the former Soviet Union. In autumn, the PMSSR becomes the PMR (Pridnestrovian Moldavian Republic), that is, a country separate from Moldova. 98% of the 78% of the able-bodied population voted for this.
History
There are several reasons why many see Pridnestrovie as part of Russia in the future, and they are both historical and legal in nature. The most important of them is that the Supreme Council of the MSSR, having decided to withdraw from the USSR, terminated the only legitimate document, according to which the former part of the Russian Empire was part of Moldova. Formally, Transnistria, even during the Romanian occupation during the Second World War, was not considered a royal territory: it, along with the Odessa region and other southern Ukrainian lands, was called Transnistria. The only reason why Tiraspol, Bendery and Gagauzia became Moldovan was voluntarily annulled at the time of the declaration of sovereignty.
Referendumwas held again, its results revealed the complete unwillingness of the population to be part of the Republic of Moldova and the desire to independently determine their future. But does this mean that Transnistria is asking to become part of Russia? Maybe its citizens are doing well?
War
The armed conflict of 1992 frighteningly resembles today's antiterrorist operation of the Ukrainian army. However, there is a difference. Moldova is a small country, much smaller than Ukraine, and therefore it was not uncommon for former neighbors, friends and even relatives who suddenly became enemies to take positions in hastily dug trenches. The population of Tiraspol, Bender and nearby villages, for historical reasons, is multinational, used to living together, but when President M. Snegur decided to "resolve" controversial issues by force, he quickly organized himself into a guard. The weapon was not a problem, it went to both opposing sides from the warehouses of the 14th Russian army, poorly guarded in the initial phase of the conflict. Everything was as it is now, and accusations against Moscow, and volunteers on both sides of the front line, and downed aircraft, and civilian casu alties. It seems that history, even recent, does not teach anyone anything…
In 2006 another referendum was held. The vast majority of PMR citizens (96.7%) expressed the hope that Pridnestrovie would become part of Russia…
Economic component of the issue
In general, laterFor more than two decades, Transnistrian macroeconomic indicators look no worse than Moldovan ones. The society is characterized by the absence of any interethnic friction, which, of course, works for the overall success, but the practically free energy resources with which Russia supplies the unrecognized republic (that is, on credit, but without any hope of returning it) are much more important. There are problems, and they are connected, as in almost all post-Soviet countries, with the loss of traditional markets for the sale of products. There is no doubt that Pridnestrovie, as part of Russia, could find its niche - there are factories, light industry enterprises, and agriculture that flourished during the years of the USSR. But there are factors preventing this scenario.
Obstacles
The main factor determining the answer to the question of whether Transnistria will be part of Russia or not is that the state, de facto existing, is de jure absent from the political map of the world. Unlike Abkhazia and South Ossetia, this country has not yet been recognized by any member of the international community, including the Russian Federation. There is reason to believe that this act, if it takes place, will entail further sanctions and accusations of aggressive policies.
The geographical location of the territory also matters. Since the political situation in Ukraine remains hostile and uncertain, it can be assumed that if Pridnestrovie becomes part of Russia, this subjectfederation will be completely or partially blocked by its neighbors. Undecided how to respond to this very likely unfriendly demarche from Moldova and Ukraine, the Kremlin will not take such an action.
The Russian economy, despite a fairly high degree of independence from foreign markets, like any other, is going through a global crisis. The task of the government is not an easy one: to maintain the achieved living standards (and even better - to raise them) in the face of a significant burden on the budget associated with an increase in government spending. Bringing Crimea up to the all-Russian level will also cost a lot.
In addition, the interests of other major world geopolitical "players" should be taken into account. The aggravation of the situation in Europe, and even the creation of hotbeds of tension on a pre-war, and even more so military level, will play into the hands of potential suppliers of hydrocarbons, the path of more expensive ones, if traditional supply channels are blocked. All these circumstances do not allow us to hope that Pridnestrovie will become part of Russia in the near future.
What's next?
During the existence of the USSR (and in more distant historical periods), almost all of its republics have developed some kind of cultural and economic centers in which the Russian-speaking or ethnically Russian population prevails. These are the Ukrainian South-East, the industrial regions of Kazakhstan and many other regions wherein Soviet times, specialists were sent to raise entire economic sectors, or the national composition was formed over the course of centuries. The wisdom of the leadership of the newly formed independent states can be judged by how carefully they treat people who sometimes spent their entire lives on strengthening the economy, who honestly did their job and achieved considerable success in it. Exclamations about the famous suitcase and the station testify to the absence of not only simple human decency, but also the usual pragmatism. Unfortunately, the mistakes of governments blinded by an exaggerated sense of national pride are repeated. Ultimately, the integrity of the country is threatened. The fate of the breakaway fragments that have become "products of the secondary division" of a great country in the short term is difficult to predict. Many of them actually made their choice, the rest is a matter of time. Perhaps the moment will come when Pridnestrovie will become part of Russia. 2014 is unlikely to be that date.
