This year, "sympathizers" (if there are any left on Ukrainian soil outside the parliament) celebrate the two-year anniversary of the coup d'état, proudly called the "revolution of dignity". What achievements can the current government boast of and what will happen next with “independent” Ukraine? Well-known Kyiv political scientist Mikhail Pogrebinsky shared his thoughts on this with the media.
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Mikhail Pogrebinsky was born in 1946, a native of Kiev. At the university, which later became known as the Taras Shevchenko National Kyiv National University, he received a degree in theoretical physics, a profession that was completely unrelated to politics.
The future political scientist began his career at the department of microdevices at one of the universities in Kyiv, where in twenty years he went from an ordinary engineer to the head of a laboratory.
The first steps in politics were taken in the 80s, while participating in the electioncompany during the preparation of elections to the Supreme Soviet of the USSR.
Pogrebinsky is a political scientist
Mikhail Borisovich Pogrebinsky is well known both in Ukraine and abroad. The secret of his fame lies in his extensive experience in the field of politics, his ability to "see through" the situation, read the information between the lines and, drawing conclusions, do not rely on words, but evaluate actions and deeds.
Tasks of the independent center
Pogrebinsky, a political scientist, is a participant in many election campaigns, he created an independent consulting center - the Kyiv Center for Political Research and Conflictology (KTsPIK), whose tasks include conducting various levels of social research and providing political advice.
Today the center's attention is focused on conducting an expert-analytical assessment of the impact of "democracy" on the course of transformational processes in Ukrainian society.
Pogrebinsky on the situation in Ukraine
The statements of the well-known political scientist contain an extremely critical attitude towards the current government. His latest articles highlight the discrepancy between the policy proclaimed by President Poroshenko and the pressing problems of the people and public opinion.
The political scientist bases his statements on the results of opinion polls.
An example of the disparity between the interests of the authorities and the people is the data on the results of the analysis of the attitude of society to three priority problems.
Priorities: real and official
According to the results of opinion polls, for citizens of Ukraine, the issue ofrelations with Russia.
Today, the war in the east ranks first among all the most worrying problems, the second is given to corruption in state bodies, the third in the minds of Ukrainians is the growth of unemployment.
The authorities, invested with power, persistently offer society their alignment: in their opinion (read - a strong and ardent desire), among the people, the priority and overshadowing all other problems is the issue of countering aggression from Russia. Everything else, as the song says, comes later. Naturally, this position is replicated with all its might by the media, for which, as you know, from informing to propaganda is one step. A similar conflict, as Mikhail Pogrebinsky notes, is also observed in a number of other issues.
Tragedy
During the fighting in the ATO zone, according to the UN, 9167 people were killed, more than 21 thousand were injured.
The Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine published a different figure: since the beginning of the ATO, there have been 2,600 dead and more than 9,000 wounded.
Even so…
Despite this, opinion polls show that today the majority of the population of Ukraine continues to treat Russia well.
The political scientist believes that in order to preserve statehood in Ukraine, society must go through a process of recovery similar to denazification in post-war Germany.
About the main thing
This is set by the Maidan as a fundamental part of the mainstream: our enemy is Russia, our goal is a national revolution, building a nation state, etc.
Radically tuned part of the Maidan, whichis made up of Ukrainian nationalists, is trying to instill his dream, cherished for many decades - in one fell swoop and forever break away from the eternal enemies, the Russians - into the minds of Ukrainians. The collapse for the sake of this "holy" cause of Ukraine itself - in their opinion, the price is quite acceptable.
Mikhail Pogrebinsky believes that the political unipolar world proclaimed by the nationalists (right sector, Svoboda), which consists in asserting the supremacy of Ukrainians in relation to other nations inhabiting the territory of Ukraine, and most importantly, in proclaiming the eternal enemy of the Galicians - Russia and all Russians - the common enemy of all Ukrainians, is impossible. The call for such a peace is actually a call for war, when, contrary to the officially approved mantra: “Ukraine is united!”, one Ukrainian looks at another through the scope of a machine gun.
Conciliatory frame
Mikhail Pogrebinsky believes that for the further existence and development of the country, a "balanced ideological framework" must be built, in which it is necessary to take into account the bipolar reality. Ukrainians are a two-part nation in which everyone deserves equal respect.
For the existence of Ukraine within its current borders, according to the political scientist, expressed by him in the media, it is necessary to build a kind of "conciliatory ideological framework", the basis of which is the priority of human rights, respect for the security interests of European countries and Russia, the maximum benefit to all interactions,
On elections in Donbass
If elections in Donbas are not held before the end of the year, the director of the Center for Political Studies believes, the EU will decide to lift sanctions against Russia. For Ukraine, this could have catastrophic consequences: a categorical revision of the attitude of Europeans to the position of the Ukrainian side.
Only the "Opposition Bloc" is ready to vote for the law on elections in Donbas today. The rest are waiting for instructions from Sikorsky Street (the US Embassy is located at this address in Kyiv).
According to Mr. Steinmeier, elections must be held before the middle of the year, according to the law, Parliament should vote during the current month.
The March meeting in Paris of the "Normandy Four" contained signs of the beginning of the collapse of the Minsk process due to the realization of its futility, the political scientist believes. Kyiv does not agree with its main provisions. It all depends on the perseverance of the Western "partners".
On the interests of "partners"
According to the political scientist, the existence of a "smoldering conflict" in eastern Ukraine is beneficial for the Americans, since it allows them to exercise control over relations between Europe and Russia. Europeans, on the other hand, benefit from the integration of Donbass into Ukraine or "treaty autonomy" on the terms of the Minsk agreements.
About "independence"
Everything depends on the perseverance of Western "partners" in "independent" Ukraine. And initially.
According to M. Pogrebinsky, the current tragedy began with the initiative of the Russophobic character of Carl Bildt and Radoslav Sikorsky, the Ministers of Foreign Affairs of Sweden and Poland, the authorsthe Eastern Partnership project, which provides for the inclusion of Ukraine in the circle of interests of the European Union.
Nobody was going to take her there. This is now clear to everyone. "Partners" urgently needed to withdraw Ukraine from traditional close relations with Russia. The artificial inflating of hysterics around Yanukovych's refusal to sign the Association Agreement has led to the current crisis in the country.
Political scientist M. Pogrebinsky is sure that without outside support the conflict would not have acquired such proportions. The matter would have been limited to a few rallies, Crimea would have remained Ukrainian, the war in Donbas would not have flared up.
A pawn in a big game
According to the political scientist, expressed both in conversations with journalists and in a number of public speeches, the “revolution of dignity” in Ukraine, i.e. Maidan with its anti-Russian plans, is nothing more than a passing pawn in the hands Western politicians, and above all, the United States.
Geopolitical competition for Ukraine between the West and Russia was initially fraught with disaster for the rebellious country.
The collapse happened
According to Mikhail Pogrebinsky, Ukraine is now undergoing difficulties endowed with all signs of collapse: a quarter of its economic potential and millions of jobs have been lost in two years, Crimea has been lost, Donbass has been "half-lost". The level of inflation in the country, the rise in prices for the most necessary goods, as well as tariffs for public services, have exceeded all possible norms. Numerous cuts in budget spending, payments and benefits have put Ukrainians on the brink of survival. And it's not yetend of trouble.
Who is to blame?
Society hesitates to face the truth: the problem is the product of the very "European choice" for which such a high price has been paid.
According to M. Pogrebinsky, Europe and America benefit from a weak Ukraine - anti-Russian and deindustrialized.
Power must go. Why isn't he leaving?
Ukraine is in an extremely difficult situation today. Even those who brought her into this situation should have noticed this.
If the government has failed and is in crisis (which is exactly what it is), it must go. This is the logic of political life in a democratic country.
February 16 vote for no confidence in the government of Yatsenyuk, which would have allowed to dismiss the government that led the country to a standstill, the Parliament could not. With the required minimum of 194 votes, a vote of no confidence was supported by 226 deputies.
An example of cynicism
During a conversation with journalists from RIA Novosti (Ukraine), Mikhail Pogrebinsky noted that the story of the failed resignation of Prime Minister Yatsenyuk can be included in an anthology of Ukrainian parliamentarism as an example of a situation where "absolute cynicism and complete lack of dignity" triumph.
For the layman: there are signs of a corrupt oligarchic "agreement" in which the high interests of the "partners" (read: patrons) of the current government are involved.
What's next?
The authorities do not leave, with all their might resting on early elections and successfully "finding" the "hand of the Kremlin" in allmanifestations of civil protest.
The political scientist believes that the reason for the current deadlock is a glaring fact that today only a fool or stubborn can deny: Maidan (read: “revolution of dignity”, a stronghold of democracy and patriotism, as well as a guarantee of the future of national prosperity), having come to power, blocked even those democratic tools that the “criminal” political regimes of the “victims” had at their disposal.
Mikhail Pogrebinsky does not undertake to predict the outcome, answers journalists' questions that he does not have "positive forecasts".
