Simulation models. Stages of development of simulation models

2024 Author: Henry Conors | [email protected]. Last modified: 2024-02-12 02:40

Simulation technologies are based on the construction of various examples of real systems that meet the professional context of a particular situation. Simulation models are compiled that meet the requirements of a given moment, in which the trained subject is immersed. The simulation and simulation-game modeling existing in the methods is accompanied by the reproduction of quite adequate processes occurring in reality. Thus, training provides an opportunity to form real professional experience, despite the quasi-professional activity.

Roles

In the learning process, game procedures are assumed that offer built-up simulation models, which means that the distribution of roles is also provided: students communicate with each other and with the teacher, imitating professional activities. Therefore, simulation technologies are divided intotwo parts - game and non-game, and helps to determine the type of analysis of the proposed situation. To do this, it is necessary to clarify the system of external conditions that encourage the start of active actions. That is, all the problems, phenomena, interconnected facts that characterize the situation, simulation models should contain.

A certain event or a specific period of the organization's activity requires the head of adequate orders, decisions and actions. The method of analyzing the study of specific situations is a detailed and in-depth study of the real situation or artificially created, the identification of characteristic properties. This contributes to the development of analytical thinking of students in the search for a systematic approach to solving a problem, identifying options for erroneous decisions, and analyzing criteria for optimal solutions. This is how professional business contacts are established, decisions are made collectively, conflicts are eliminated.

Situations

There are four types of situations: first, the situation of the problem is considered, where the trainees have to find the causes of occurrence, pose and solve the problem, then the situation is to be assessed according to the decisions made. After that, a situation is built that illustrates with examples all the topics of this course, and the problems that have just been solved are taken as the basis, and the topic is completed by a situation-exercise, where simulation models solve easy problems by analogy - these are the so-called training situations.

Specific types of situations are different: these are both classic andlive, situation-incident, the situation with the analysis of business correspondence, as well as actions according to the instructions. The choice is determined by many factors: the objectives of the study, the level of training, the availability of technical means and illustrative material - it all depends on the individual style of the teacher, whose creativity is not limited by strict regulation either in the choice of varieties or in the methods of analysis. Here are the first steps in developing simulation models.

Practical tasks

In practice, the ideas of the contextual approach are best embodied, because they consist of specific and real life situations: a case, a story that the simulation model contains, an example of a description of events that have taken place or are quite possible, ending in errors in solving production problems. The challenge is to identify and analyze these errors in applying the idea and concept of this course.

Professional training of this kind is quite realistic and effective in comparison with the formulation of individual questions, which are considered purely theoretically. The orientation of situational learning is such that skills and knowledge are taught not as a subject, but as a means for solving various problems that arise in the activities of a specialist. Training situations are built on real professional production fragments, taking into account all interpersonal relationships, which is extremely important for the successful operation of the enterprise. Trainees receive the outline and context of their future professional activity.

Choice of situations

This is one of the most difficult tasks of teaching. An exemplary learning situation usually meets the following requirements:

1. The script is based on reality or taken from life. This does not mean that it is necessary to submit a production fragment with numerous details and technological subtleties that will distract the student from solving the main task. Industrial jargon is also inappropriate in this case.
2. The learning situation should not contain more than five to seven points, which are commented by students using terms in line with the concept being studied. A simulation model whose example is difficult to solve is unlikely to quickly teach students.
3. But the learning situation should also be devoid of primitiveness: in addition to five or seven points of the problem under study, there must be two or three links in the text. Usually problems are not laid out in life on separate shelves for consistent resolution. Problems at work are usually interrelated with social or psychological inconsistencies. It is especially important in teaching to apply the ideas of the course.

Teaching situation text

For example, Irina Ivanova is a sales manager at the Lotus Flower company, which specializes in hygiene products, cosmetics and perfumery. She came to this place in connection with the promotion six months ago. A conversation with the general manager on the results of her work will take place in ten days.

Before that, Irina had been successful for two years in a separate section of the company, for example, selling hygiene products, and she really liked it. She was respectedshe was popular with sellers and gained many loyal customers.

Development of the situation

Naturally, she was delighted with the promotion and began to work enthusiastically in a new position. However, things didn't go well for some reason. She did not have time to work in the office, because almost all the time she was in the hall and followed the actions of the sellers. I even had to take work home. And all the same, she did not have time to do anything: the request of the authorities to prepare ideas for the exhibition and sale was completed on the last day, because nothing interesting had been thought up beforehand, creativity is not such a simple matter. The sick typist was unable to retype the papers with Irina's ideas. As a result, Irina did not complete the task by the deadline set by her superiors. This is where simulation learning models would help her the most.

After that, everything went wrong. Having spent time talking with a regular client, Irina did not think over the speech when her colleague solemnly received a certificate, she even was late for the ceremony. Then several times her subordinates left their workplaces without warning her. The personnel department repeatedly reminded her of the need to draw up a training program on the use of medical cosmetics, but Irina could not contact the teacher from the medical institute. She was always late to introduce even junior salespeople to senior positions. And yet Irina has not prepared a quarterly report with a forecast of the assortment. And did not even answer several letters from customers who wanted to receive the goods by mail. And like a cherry on the cake - a recent quarrel with one of her previously very respectedsellers for price tags. It turns out it's not easy to be a good manager.

Situation Analysis

A simulation model is first of all a reading of a situation. Here the following picture emerges of six points with sub-points.

1. The new job has changed. What are their restraining and motivating forces?
2. Before change - having self-respect and knowing how to sell.
3. Motivation in the desire to succeed, but also to maintain the ability to sell - role conflict.
4. Management style - complete inability to give part of the authority to subordinates. Collisions with subordinates cannot be avoided.
5. In a new role: did not determine the specifics of the position, the size of the load, did not solve a simple problem with reprinting, skimps on planning and control, allows absenteeism of subordinates, disrupts the staff training plan, does not know how to organize his time and prioritize, loses creativity - no new ideas.
6. Management style of entrusted staff: allows vertical conflict, interferes in the affairs of subordinates, is not self-confident, leads without the help of management.

Identification of problems

The structure of simulation models involves the second step to identify emerging problems for their consistent solution. Here you need to follow the same points, taking into account the analysis made, but considering the situation with a different goal.

1. Change: are there ways to manage change and which ones, howreduce resistance to change.
2. Leadership styles: why Irina's chosen style is unsuccessful, and in favor of which one is better to abandon it.
3. Motivation: what management theory says about stimulating Irina and salespeople.
4. Specific work goals: does Irina know all the details about the new job, what were the goals and how they should have been achieved.
5. Planning and control: did Irina plan her actions as a manager, were they controlled.
6. Conflict: what is the cause and problem of the conflict and how could it be de alt with.

Thematic links

The use of simulation models helps to build a situation from its inception (motives), revealing the motives for its beginning, to the transition to a new quality. What it will be depends on how the analysis is carried out and what conclusions are drawn. No situation is complete without connecting themes. Most often, simulation models do not reproduce reality in all aspects, but several such bundles must be present in the game. Here they are next.

1. Irina did not see any differences in the work of a manager and a salesperson.
2. Irina was ill-prepared for her new position.
3. Irina has no fundamental knowledge of management.

Development of connecting motifs

What is possible and what must be done regarding bridging topics?

1. First of all, the transfer of information is necessary. Irina's bosses are obligedpresent her with specific requirements for work immediately after the appointment. Irina must make her subordinates aware of her management style at work.
2. Secondly, Irina must be trained in the basics of management, her subordinates in sales methods, and, of course, Irina and her subordinates must be trained in interpersonal interaction.
3. Thirdly, it is necessary to clearly plan Irina's functional duties as a manager and the activities of the entire department as a whole.
4. Fourthly, there must be proper HR management: Irina needs help in setting the goal and priority both momentarily and long-term, that is, it makes sense for the HR department to plan staff development in which the company is interested.

This whole topic is directly related only to the transfer of information.

Recommendations for the work of the firm

When the game comes to the stage of debriefing and conclusions, it becomes clear what simulation models are and how they are useful. The conclusions are very accurate and specific for almost everyone, because the situation was analyzed to the smallest detail.

• Firstly, the manager must agree on the specifics of work with superiors and convey the results to subordinates.
• Secondly, all priorities and goals must be clear to the manager and also explained to the rest of the staff.

Irina needs to master the management technique in managing her own time, in control and planning, in managing people and any conflict, in circulating new information among the team and inits development.

Irina needs to find out in detail in the HR department about the training procedures, as well as the professional development of employees, in order to apply them as correctly as possible. She will have to improve her professional level on her own, and in the future, go through her studies. These recommendations can frighten an unprepared person, so you need to immediately break them into three sections: immediate implementation, medium-urgency recommendations, and the last point is clearly long-term. It makes sense for Irina and her superiors to discuss the reasons for the failures and do everything so that they do not happen again.

Having thus analyzed the artificially constructed situation, each student will understand what simulation models are.

Economic development patterns

Socio-economic development has different simulation models. This required a separate name in order to specifically know the scope of one or another situational artificial construction. Dynamic simulation models are designed specifically for predicting the operation of economic systems. The title emphasizes that dynamics is the most important characteristic of such constructions, and they are based on the principles of system dynamics.

The stages of construction have the following sequence of actions: first, a cognitive structuring scheme is built, then statistical data are selected, and the scheme is refined. The next step is to form mathematical models that describe cognitive connections, then IDM is assembled as a whole. going ondebugging and verification of the model, and, finally, multivariate calculations are performed, including predictive ones.

Scripting method

Scenario analysis, which means a simulation model for assessing the risk of a particular project, is needed in order to calculate the dangers on the way to the formation of the project and ways to overcome them. Investment risk can be expressed in the deviation of the cash flow intended for this project, contrary to expectations, and the larger the deviation, the greater the risk. Each project demonstrates a possible range of project results, therefore, giving them a probabilistic assessment, it is possible to evaluate cash flows, taking into account expert estimates of the probabilistic generations of all these flows or the magnitude of deviations of all flow components from the expected values.

The scenario method is good because on the basis of such expert assessments it is possible to build at least three possible development situations: pessimistic, most real (probable) and optimistic. Simulation models are computer experiments. There is only one difference from reality here - it is not the system itself that produces the action, but its model. Simulation models of systems help out in cases where conducting real experiments is at least unreasonable, and at the maximum - costly and dangerous. Imitation is a way of studying systems without the slightest degree of risk. It is practically impossible, for example, to assess the risk of investment projects without simulations, where only forecast data on costs, sales volumes, prices and other components that determine risks are used.

Financial analysis

Models used to solve many problems facing financial analysis contain random variables that cannot be controlled by decision makers. These are stochastic simulation models. Simulation allows you to derive possible outcomes that are based on the probability distributions of random variables. Also, stochastic simulation is often called the Monte Carlo method.

How are the risks of investment projects modelled? A series of numerous experiments is carried out, which purely empirically assess the degree of influence of various factors (that is, the initial values) on the results, which are entirely dependent on them. Conducting a simulation experiment is usually divided into certain stages.

Establishing the relationship between the initial and final indicators in the form of a mathematical inequality or equation is the first step along the path of experiment. Then you need to give the machine laws that distribute the probabilities for key parameters. Next, a computer simulation of all values of the main parameters of the model is carried out, the characteristics of the distributions of the initial and final indicators are calculated. Finally, the analysis of the results that the computer gave out is carried out, and a decision is made.