The "Delphi" method: an example of use, history of creation, stages of development and disadvantages

2024 Author: Henry Conors | [email protected]. Last modified: 2024-02-12 02:40

Some of the problems that make life difficult for humanity cannot be solved alone. Others cannot be solved even by the whole team. But scientific minds are always trying to come up with new ways to eliminate political, social and economic situations that can cause negative consequences. Thus, for a more effective analysis of problem situations, the expert method "Delphi" was created.

The essence of effective analysis

The method should conditionally include several parts, each of which is important, to meet the conditions of this concept, the following criteria are needed: analysts, competent experts, an actual problem.

Its essence lies in the fact that the experts are given a certain situation, for which they can choose a solution using the "Delphi" method. Each member of the group should offer their own way out of the problem situation. A feature of thisanalysis is the fact that experts are required to come to a common conclusion. Each of them individually works with the situation, then voices it in the team. They are obliged to exchange thoughts and ideas until they come to a common denominator.

Results of the "Delphi" method

Analysts, after the experts provide a solution to the problem, consider each of the approaches, and help shape the overall conclusion. The main idea of the Delphi method is that all experts, despite ideological differences and solution methods, will have something in common. This commonality is sought out by a group of analysts, combining into a single whole the similarities in all points of view, which contributes to a single theoretical solution to the problem. The method of solution chosen jointly by experts and confirmed by analysts is considered the most correct, because experts eventually come to a common decision. This is the final point of the "Delphi" method.

History of practical application

This method was created in the 60s of the twentieth century. But initially it was associated with the ancient Greek oracle at Delphi. And he appeared quite by accident. In the 1950s, the US Air Force sponsored a project concerning changes in various areas of the life of the state. It was one of the first examples of solving problems using the Delphi method. A group of experts was assembled, which, under the control of analysts, with the help of intensive polls, came to some general conclusion on the chosen topic. Following the example of the "Delphi" method, many problems were predicted and solved, it provedits efficiency. Moreover, the peer review of the further development of science and the military in this way became so popular that in 1964 issues that went beyond the topic of science and the military were analyzed.

Main stages of research

In order to solve examples using the "Delphi" method in practice, you need to know its structure. In total, this concept can be divided into several important stages:

• Creating sub-questions. The problem itself is sent to the experts. It is proposed to break it down into subparagraphs. The options that appear most often are selected, then the most popular ones are compiled.
• Recheck stage. The created questionnaire is sent back to the expert group, but this time they are asked to add certain information that they think is missing from the questionnaire. Looking positively at adding new aspects of the situation to be considered.
• Selecting a solution. The expert group meets to discuss and resolve various aspects of the problem, which is considered in the form of several components. The priority is the constant convergence of expert opinions, as well as the analysis of the most extraordinary or opposite in meaning methods for solving the problem. Experts consult each other throughout the stage in an effort to come to a common decision. They can change their point of view many times. Analysts help experts to agree.
• Summing up. The expert group is engaged in the selection of one common opinion, which, according to the method"Delphi" is the most adequate as a solution to the problem. At the same time, the study may have another outcome, namely the lack of consensus on the question asked. In this case, if all aspects of the problem have been considered, but no solution has been found, then the situation is still given a certain assessment and recommendations are made.

Additional research steps

There are stages that help sharpen the opinion of the expert group and facilitate its work. Let's take a closer look:

• Preparatory. It consists in the selection of an expert group, a group of analysts and the necessary problem.
• Analytical stage. Analysts check the agreement or disagreement of all experts on a given issue, and then issue final recommendations for resolving the problem.

Positives

Each way of solving a problem has its positive and negative sides. Consider the positive aspects of the Delphi method:

• Consensus. The main goal of the participants is to come to a common conclusion. It follows that in the later stages of the study they will not have disagreements about the issue. It will either be resolved by a general conclusion or not resolved at all.
• Distance. This method does not imply the presence of a group of people in the same room / city. After all, you can answer questionnaires remotely, as well as offer or refute your own and other people's concepts. This makes this method very convenient.
• Forecasting. This method cangood at predicting events in a single variant. One option, which, in the opinion of the expert group, should become the most likely, is considered correct.

Negative sides

There are much more negative aspects in this technique. Some of them are not very significant, while others, on the contrary, are capable of smashing the entire set of proposed ways to solve the problem to smithereens. However, this does not mean that it is ineffective. Consider the arguments in more detail:

• The narrowness of group thinking. The opinion of the majority is not always the only correct one. This is a thesis that does not require proof. Even though all points of view will be heard, this does not change the fact that the conclusion will be right or wrong. And due to the fact that the essence of the method is the adoption of one method, there can be no several points of view that are opposite in meaning.
• Conformism. The study may go down the wrong path because of a group of conformists seeking to get into the majority. Thus, they start up research on a deliberately false path.
• A lot of wasted time. Each stage of the "Delphi" method lasts at least a day. And given the fact that the stages of surveys and debriefing may be repeated, the study may be delayed.
• Different spheres. A group of experts can be drawn from different institutions and sectors of society, which makes it very difficult to sum up the overall results, since due to differences in worldviews, it becomes more difficult for experts to agree with each other.
• Paradoxical. If you use the Delphi method on two different groups of experts, then the conclusions made by them may differ radically. And since this method claims that the final recommendations for solving the problem are correct, it turns out that we have two correct sets of recommendations at once, which is impossible in some cases.
• Originality and correctness of decisions. The most original or correct solutions may take a secondary place in the hierarchy of recommendations.

Example of applying the "Delphi" method

Surely explaining the essence of this way of making decisions seems too complicated, for which the following is an example of one company in the oil field, and wants to know the approximate date of being able to use robots instead of divers to check platforms under water.

The company gathers a group of experts from various fields of the oil industry (divers, engineers, ship captains, robot designers, etc.). The expert group is given a task, which they solve according to the above scheme. The results are as follows: robots can be used in the interval from 2000 to 2050. The spread is too big.

The procedure is repeated. Experts listen to each other's opinions and form a common forecast. As a result, the vast majority of responses were within the framework of 2005-2015. A similar example of the application of the Delphi method allowed an oil company to plan the level of production and implementation of robots in the oil industry. Butis this method applicable for our country?

The Delphi method: an example in practice in Russia

This method is quite applicable to all areas of society. A good space to use is usually the political realm. An example of using the "Delphi" method is the task of making the most accurate forecast about the leadership of "United Russia" in the elections of deputies of the State Duma of the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation.

A group of experts from the political sphere of society (politicians, journalists, analysts, specialists in the field of electoral technologies, etc.) is gathering. After that, each participant is sent the first version of the questionnaire, as well as basic information on this issue. Experts evaluate the problem, add information, change some aspects of the issue, etc.

After all the work, participants send their questionnaires to analysts. The results were different, with too much scatter. Therefore, analysts create an extended sample questionnaire, which takes into account the opinions of various experts.

Participants get acquainted with the questionnaire, learn each other's opinions about the problem, try to come to a common conclusion. They write down their forecasts, taking into account new information, and send them back to analysts. This continues until the results are as similar as possible. According to the results of the study, United Russia's chances of becoming the leading party in the elections turned out to be about 95%.

Problems of use inRussia

Application of the "Delphi" method and examples of problem solving in Russia are found in very small quantities. This is because:

• In the Soviet Union, analytics was a centralized process, which is why the conformity of many experts is extremely high. This suggests that the chance of highlighting the wrong solution to the problem increases.
• Lack of independent analytical structures.
• Lack of tradition. The "Delphi" method was not in demand in Russia earlier, which means that it is unlikely to spread today.