Relations between Russia and Turkey: forecast for the future

2024 Author: Henry Conors | [email protected]. Last modified: 2024-02-12 02:47

Of course, today it is no secret to anyone that relations between Russia and Turkey, which have been built for centuries, have undergone serious changes. They have deteriorated to the limit. This is largely due to the intensification of the international situation: a large-scale military-political knot that has begun from the Middle East to Ukraine can unravel at any moment and turn into a bloody massacre.

Relations between Russia and Turkey are aggravated primarily by the fact that the country led by Erdogan, having enlisted (albeit indirectly) the support of the North Atlantic bloc, illegally invaded the territory of northern Syria and began military operations there.

But the corresponding resolution of Russia, addressed to the UN Security Council, Western countries and the United States did not support. What awaits relations between Russia and Turkey in the future and why they are now developing according to a "tense" scenario. Let's take a closer look at this issue.

Russian bomber destroyed

Relations between Russia and Turkey have deteriorated not only for the above reason. First of all, this was facilitated by the fact of the destruction of the Russian Su-24M aircraft. The culprit of this incident was the Turkish side, which with surface-to-air missilesattacked, in her words, "an unidentified object that violated the airspace." In reality, the fighter carried out a peacekeeping mission and did not invade foreign territory. However, Turkish President Erdogan said that the incident with the Su-24M upsets him and makes him think. At the same time, he is in no hurry to improve relations with the Russian side, completely disclaiming responsibility for the destroyed aircraft.

Confrontation intensifies

It should be noted that the conflict between our country and Turkey was aggravated by other reasons.

Suffice it to recall the case of the "Sharp-witted" guard ship, which had to react with warning fire on a Turkish seiner going to ram. The fact that Turkey has closed the Bosphorus for Russia cannot but be outraged, as a result of which our merchant ships are forced to run out of schedule. In addition, Erdogan's country tried to prevent the drilling of Russian drilling rigs in the waters of the World Cup.

Adequate measures

Of course, our country could not but react to the aggressive and illegal actions of the "Black Sea" neighbor. What should Turkey have been preparing for? Russian sanctions were not long in coming.

Firstly, Turkish citizens were deprived of the right to formalize labor relations with Russian employers. Secondly, the cancellation of charter flights between our country and the Turkish state was introduced. Thirdly, tourist trips to the Black Sea country were banned. Fourthly, the visa-free regime with Turkey has been cancelled. Fifth, there weresanctions have been imposed on certain types of vegetables, fruits, fish, seafood, which were imported from the country now led by Erdogan.

Has Turkey been hurt? Russia's sanctions have proved it.

Armed Forces

Why does Erdogan feel confident when he commits clearly unfriendly actions towards our country?

Of course, he feels (albeit indirectly) supported by NATO. Well, to achieve his interests in Syria, he relies on his own Armed Forces. But is the army of Turkey and Russia comparable? Of course not.

For example, in our country the number of personnel is about 1 million people against 410 thousand Turks. Russia's tank arsenal is currently at around 21,000 units, while its "Black Sea" neighbor has just over 3,000 units, almost half of which are technically obsolete.

A similar situation is observed with artillery and armored vehicles. Despite the fact that the armies of Turkey and Russia are two different categories, but if we take into account the armored power of the two countries, then the advantages in artillery and tanks fade into the background. Why? Yes, all because Russia and Turkey have no land borders.

The neighboring state is inferior to ours, if we compare the potential of the air force. The Russian Aerospace Forces has a serious bombing power, which can seriously change the "theatre of war", both on land and at sea.

And,of course, the fleets of the above countries cannot be compared. Yes, someone can admire the arsenal of Turkish sailing ships: eight corvettes, fourteen submarines, sixteen frigates. But other statistics cannot but surprise: Russia has about fifty warships on the Black Sea alone.

Turkey loses to our country in terms of the number of missile launchers. Thus, comparing Russia and Turkey in terms of military potential, we can conclude that Erdogan's army is strong and powerful, but it is clearly inferior to ours.

Policy of double standards

Despite the high degree of quality of diplomatic relations between the above countries, Ankara does not hesitate to use double standards in international affairs and does not miss the opportunity to extract material benefits for itself, sometimes dealing with terrorist organizations.

The Kremlin has repeatedly stated that Turkey is hosting bandits who then commit crimes in Russia. The special services of Ankara provided all kinds of support to the radical Islamists in the North Caucasus. It also became known that Turkey supplies the militants with weapons and ammunition.

Official information has appeared that Ankara is one of the important partners in the sale of oil, which is produced by international criminal groups.

And all this is happening against the backdrop of Erdogan's statements, the essence of which boils down to the following: it is necessary to strengthen the fight against terrorists.

Future

Can we talk about the imminent improvement of relations between Russia and Turkey? Most likely not. But there is no need to say that the parties intend to stop the dialogue. This is proved by the fact that Moscow is ready to fulfill its obligations under the concluded contracts, while Ankara is in no hurry to impose retaliatory sanctions. If we talk about options for economic cooperation, then, most likely, manual mode will be used here.

The final adjustment of relations between Turkey and Russia will happen if Erdogan and his team resign, and his successor is not obsessed with the idea of reviving the Ottoman Empire.