When will the Ukrainian anti-terrorist operation end

2024 Author: Henry Conors | [email protected]. Last modified: 2024-02-12 02:42

The collapse of the USSR, which initially took place quite peacefully, led to the emergence of numerous “hot spots” on the territory of a vast country. Interethnic conflicts, promptly suppressed by the Soviet authorities using all the means of the state apparatus, suddenly there was no one to “extinguish”, moreover, their main source - nationalist movements and parties - in many newly formed countries became an element of the political apparatus and a stronghold of sovereignty. After the tragic events in Nagorno-Karabakh, Abkhazia, Transnistria, Tajikistan, Chechnya, Dagestan, Georgia, Kyrgyzstan and many other post-Soviet regions, Ukraine's turn has come. Here began the so-called "anti-terrorist operation", unprecedented in its scale, which, perhaps, will have to overshadow many local wars of the twentieth and early twenty-first centuries.

Backstory

Ukraine is historically divided according to the political and historical sympathies prevailing in different regions. However, apart from"Bandera" and "cotton" ideologies, there are economic factors that influence the course of the further development of the state. President Yanukovych, realizing this circumstance, hesitated for a long time, choosing the vector of movement of the country entrusted to him. His task was not easy: he had to determine what was more profitable in the macroeconomic sense - striving for the West, promising very distant prospects for joining the "European values" that are mysterious for many citizens of Ukraine, or quite real commercial and industrial cooperation with the Russian Federation. The choice was also made difficult by the extremely strict conditions set by the EU countries: “It is impossible to sit on two chairs, and whoever is not with us is against us!” Ultimately, Viktor Fedorovich fell into confusion, did not dare to use force against a well-organized Maidan, and was overthrown.

Start

Only an extremely naive observer can claim that Donetsk and Lugansk had any tender sympathy for their ousted and fugitive president. However, the very fact that representatives of only one political force came to power, who did not consider it necessary to listen to other opinions, caused a certain murmur. After the secession of Crimea and its entry into the Russian Federation, a precedent arose that foreshadowed the imminent and complete collapse of the country. On April 7, an anti-terrorist operation began in eastern Ukraine. The name of this military action suggested the creation of a certain image of the enemy. Both military personnel, and their own population, and the international community were inspired by the idea ofthe fact that they will have to fight with a few groups of mercenaries and bandits, most of whom arrived from behind the Russian border. In this case, victory was expected to be guaranteed, quick and almost bloodless. Very soon, every sober-minded person with a penchant for analyzing events began to understand the fallacy (at best) or criminality (at worst) of such an approach to resolving the conflict, recognized by the Red Cross Committee as "non-international".

A question of legitimacy

Anti-terrorist operation was announced by Acting President of Ukraine Turchynov. He and his associates came to power in about the same legal way as the Bolshevik Party in 1917. A coup took place in the country, called a revolution, but not possessing its main feature - a change in the socio-economic formation. The document, signed by the Acting President, contained the expressions “consolidation”, “end of confrontation” in its title and directly pointed to the place where the main threat to the new government arose: Donetsk and Luhansk regions. A significant part of the population was expecting elections in which people would be able to elect a legitimate president, expressing at least to some extent their views.

ATO after elections

The choice was not rich. Those who came to the polling stations on May 25 were guided by the appearance of the candidates and the reputation that they managed to gain during their previous career. The majority of the citizens who took part in the plebiscite considered the most appropriatethe image of Petro Poroshenko, pinning hope on his common sense and businesslike approach to resolving the armed confrontation. The bright expectations were not justified, the anti-terrorist operation continued with even greater ferocity.

Dubious success

The deplorable state of the armed forces of Ukraine is inextricably linked with the economic state of this country. Despite ongoing efforts to maintain morale and the natural superiority of firepower and equipment of the regular army over the militia, successes are sporadic, and losses exceed all conceivable norms. The number of downed aircraft has long been estimated at a double-digit figure, and the burnt armored vehicles have not been counted for a long time. The population of Ukraine has to judge the losses of personnel by indirect signs, they are hidden and underestimated. The civilian population is dying, about a thousand innocent victims (including children) have been recognized, and it is difficult to establish how many of them actually are. Bombing and shelling destroy houses and social facilities. There is a general trend towards the fact that the anti-terrorist operation in the Donetsk region is becoming more and more punitive. However, in Luhansk too.

Prospects

The Chechen war was a terrible shock for Russia. Approximately one percent of the population of the world's largest country was dissatisfied with the current economic and political situation,a significant part of it was set to secede from the Russian Federation. The Ukrainian anti-terrorist operation is being carried out in much more critical conditions. Disagreement with the domestic and foreign policies of the current leadership is expressed to one degree or another by a considerable part of the people, and from 4 to 5 percent of the entire population lives in the war zone, while the resource base of Ukraine is disproportionately poorer. Soldiers fighting for the country's unity lack everything from the infamous bulletproof vests to food. A new mobilization has been announced. How long will the antiterrorist operation last? Russia is accepting refugees, there are already hundreds of thousands of them…