Statistics helps researchers evaluate the processes that occur in the system. Various factors can be grouped, compared with other similar categories. The population and the processes taking place in the social sphere are studied quite thoroughly by statistics. After all, this reflects the existing demographic situation at the global level.
The average annual population is involved in many economic studies at the macro level. Therefore, this important category of data is constantly monitored and recalculated. The importance of the indicator, as well as the methods of analysis are discussed in the article.
Population
To be able to determine the average annual population of a city, district or country, it is necessary to understand the essence of the subject of study. The demographic situation can be viewed from different angles.
Population refers to the total number of people who live within the boundaries of a certain territory. To analyze the demographic situation, this indicator is considered inin terms of natural reproduction (birth and death rates) and migration. They also examine the structure of the population (by age, gender, economic and social level, etc.). Also, demographic data shows how the settlement of people across the territory has changed.
Population is studied by statistics using general and special methods. This allows you to make full, deep conclusions about the development of demographic indicators.
Analysis directions
The average annual population is estimated using different grouping characteristics depending on the purpose of the analysis. The demographic picture that has developed over a certain period of time in a particular territory can be considered in terms of the dynamics of the total population.
To understand why certain changes have occurred, it is necessary to evaluate the natural movement, the migration of people. To do this, relevant data are included in the analysis. In order to have a complete picture of the grouping of the population, the formation of the total number of people, they are classified according to certain criteria.
For example, a study shows how many women and men live in a certain area, what age they are, how many people from the working population have qualifications, the highest level of education.
Calculation formula
To calculate the population, various formulas are applied. But sometimes the calculation is complicated by the collection of data for several time intervals. If there is information at the beginning andthe end of the period, the average annual population (formula) looks like this:
CHNavg. \u003d (ChNn.p. + ChNk.p.) / 2, where ChNav.p. – average population size, ChNn.p. – the number of population at the beginning of the period, NPC.p. – number at the end of the period.
If statistics were collected for each month of the study period, the formula would be:
CHNavg.=(0.5CHN1 + CHN2 … CHNp-1 + 0.5CHNp)(n-1), where CHN1, CHN2 … CHNp-1 is the number of population at the beginning of the month, n is the number of months.
Data for analysis
The average annual population, the formula of which was presented above, takes a series of data to calculate. It is necessary to calculate the constant number of the population living in this territory (PN). It includes the actual number of people who actually live in the study area (HH).
In addition to this indicator, to study the demographic state of the country, the category of the temporarily residing population (TP) is taken into account. Also, temporarily absent people (VO) take part in the count. Only this indicator is subtracted from the total. The resident population formula looks like this:
PN=NN + VP - VO.
To distinguish between VP and NN, take into account the time interval of 6 months. If a group of people lives in the study area for more than six months, they are referred to as cash, and less than six months - to the temporary population.
Census
The average annual resident population is calculated onbased on census data. But this process requires a significant investment of time, effort and money. Therefore, it is not possible to conduct a census every month or even a year.
Therefore, in the intervals between recounting the number of people in a certain area, a system of logical calculations is used. Collect statistical data on births and deaths, migration movement. But over time, a certain error in the indicators accumulates.
Therefore, in order to correctly determine the average annual population, it is still necessary to conduct a periodic census.
Application of analysis data
Calculation of the average annual population is carried out in order to further study demographic processes. The result of the analysis is used in the calculation of mortality and fertility rates, natural reproduction. They are calculated for each age group.
Also, the average number is applicable in assessing the number of able-bodied and economically active population. At the same time, they can consider the totality of people who left or arrived in the territory of the country or region through migration. This makes it possible to assess the potential of the entire workforce concentrated here.
Proper distribution of labor resources is the key to the economic development of the state. Therefore, the importance of counting the population cannot be overestimated.
Natural movementpopulation
The average annual population, the calculation formula of which was discussed above, is involved in the assessment of various demographic indicators. One of them is the natural movement of the population. It is due to the natural processes of fertility and mortality.
In a year, the average population increases by the number of newborns and decreases by the number of deaths. This is the natural course of life. Relative to the average population, the coefficients of natural movement are found. If the birth rate exceeds the death rate, there is an increase (and vice versa).
Also, when conducting such an analysis, the population is broken down by age categories. This determines which group had the highest mortality. This allows us to draw a conclusion about the standard of living in the study area, the social security of citizens.
Migration
The indicator of the number of inhabitants can change not only due to natural processes. People leave to work or, on the contrary, come for the purpose of employment. If such migrants are or are absent at the object under study for more than 6 months, this must be taken into account in the analysis.
Significant migration flows affect the economy. The labor market is changing both with a decrease and an increase in the number of able-bodied residents.
The average annual population will help to find both the coefficient of growth and decrease in the supply of labor in the region. If atoo large a flow of emigrants will come into the country, the unemployment rate will rise. A decrease in the number of able-bodied population leads to a budget deficit, a decrease in pensions, salaries of doctors, teachers, etc. Therefore, this indicator is also extremely necessary to control the migration movement.
Economic Activity
In addition to changes in the quantitative ratio of the entire population of a country or region, a structural analysis is necessarily carried out. There are usually three income classes.
The average annual number of the economically active population allows us to assess the purchasing power of residents, their standard of living. In developed countries, most of the society is made up of people with average incomes. They can purchase the necessary food, things, periodically make large purchases, travel.
In such states there is a small percentage of very rich and poor people. If the number of low-income residents increases significantly, a large financial burden falls on the budget. This reduces the overall standard of living.
All groups of the economically active population are presented as coefficients relative to the average annual population.
Probability tables
To determine the average annual population without a census, the method of constructing probability tables is used. The fact is that most demographic processes can be predicted in advance. It concernsvital movement.
The table is built on the basis of several statements. The natural movement is irreversible, because you cannot die and be born twice. You can only give birth to your first child once. A certain sequence of events must be taken into account. For example, you cannot enter into a second marriage if the first has not been registered.
The population is divided into age groups. For each of them, the probability of the occurrence of a particular event is different. Next, the number of people in each category is analyzed.
Over time, people with a certain degree of probability move into one or another group. This is how a prediction is made. For example, the category of the population that is of working age will become pensioners. Therefore, analysts are able to predict how many people will join the next group.
Planning
Planning at the macroeconomic level is impossible without statistical data. The average annual number of the active population is taken into account when studying the standard of living, purchasing power, as well as when developing the country's main economic document (budget).
The amount of his income and expenses cannot be predicted without taking into account the number and structure of the country's inhabitants. The more people work in the non-budgetary sector, the higher their income level, the more significant the injections into budget funds will be.
If analysts determine a drop in input flows in the future, it is necessary to develop measures to improve the situation. Each state has its own apparatus of leveragemanagement of demographic resources. By creating new jobs, pursuing a competent social policy, and raising the standard of living of the population, it is possible to make the country prosperous.
Analysis and planning of the demographic situation is carried out with the obligatory use of average annual population indicators, as well as other structural coefficients. Therefore, the adequacy of country budget planning depends on the correctness of data collection and their study.
Having considered such a thing as the average population, we can understand the importance of this indicator for macroeconomic analysis and planning. Many forecasts for the future of a country, region or city are made after the correct collection and processing of relevant information. This is a necessary step when preparing a budget plan and many other important financial documents.
