Kondratiev's theory of long waves. Theory of cyclicity in economics

2024 Author: Henry Conors | [email protected]. Last modified: 2024-02-12 02:48

Before proceeding directly to the Kondratiev theory of long waves, it is worth noting the deep ideological position of its creator. Namely, the belief in the existence of objective patterns in social life and the economy in particular. As well as understanding the task of science as the comprehension, identification, knowledge of these sequences and the use of this knowledge for a purposeful economic process.

General characteristics of the scientific heritage

In fact, the position of N. D. Kondratiev, which is written above, is reflected in the famous phrase of Auguste Comte. It is with it that Nikolai Dmitrievich finishes one of his works on the problems of foresight:

Know to foresee, foresee to act

It was this saying that was the ideological credo of Kondratiev in the theory of long waves.

Scientific method

Nikolai Dmitrievich Kondratiev almost always, even withuniversity times, was interested in a certain range of issues. He was always worried about the methodological topic, especially if you look at his earliest student work in a scientific circle. By the way, today all his teachings are freely available.

In addition to the fact that Nikolai Dmitrievich was interested in methodological issues, he was also fond of the statistical and economic topic. That is, this approach for him was one of the ways, almost the main one, for identifying objective phenomena that are present in economic life. And without this, he could not imagine any work for himself, that is, he, in principle, was not inclined to such a deductive construction of teachings. But before the theory of long waves was developed, Kondratiev changed his mind somewhat.

Large cycles

Further, as for the direction, as noted above, it was an interest in methodology, it continued in the problem of economic dynamics, including the theory of large cycles.

This was a problem of planning, forecasting and regulating the economy, which was prompted in every possible way by real questions. At that time they were constantly heard and discussed by many scientists in the country. This is an agrarian issue and problems of the market, agricultural products and so on.

It can also be noted that some of Kondratiev's works, especially those written in the very first period, have a historical and economic direction, and partly even an ethnographic one. But Nikolai Dmitrievich also had some political teachings. Especially a lot of them came out in the first years of Soviet power, which he greatlydisliked.

The problem of economic dynamics

This aspect is central-theoretical in all the works of N. D. Kondratiev. It is on this that it is worth dwelling in more detail. Nikolai Dmitrievich entered the history of economic science as the author of the hypothesis of large cycles and the theory of long waves.

Kondratiev was not the first to show interest in this problem. Therefore, a scientist cannot be called a discoverer. He was not the first to mention the economic mechanism and, in general, long-term cyclical processes.

This began to be talked about in connection with the long depression in agriculture, which took place from 1870 to the end of the 19th century. The first researchers of long waves had a desire to understand why this phenomenon has become so long. In fact, such a problem dragged on all the others.

Kondratiev also had a lot of predecessors in long-term discussions about cycles both in Russia and abroad. Some of these people singled out such an economic mechanism as big cycles. Someone even singled out just a whole wave.

Explanation of driving force

What, in fact, determines the theory of long waves in the economy, consisting of an upward stage, that is, almost fifty or sixty years, and a downward part? Why is there such an interesting movement? What is the connection of this process with technological progress? What is the mechanism of this movement of the great cycle? How do they compare with regular intervals? And how do these big cycles relate topromising?

These questions were discussed by Nikolai Dmitrievich Kondratyev and his followers on the basis of his ideas.

Main works

Here are the main works of Kondratiev:

• "The world economy and its conjuncture during and after the war." The work was published in 1922. It is in this chapter that the economist mentions the existence of the theory of cyclical crises. And in subsequent works there is a discussion of this topic.
• "Large conjuncture cycles". Issued in 1925.
• "On the question of large conjuncture cycles". Presented teaching in 1926.
• "Great cycles of conjuncture" - 1928. This is a report that was presented at the Institute of Economics RANION (Russian Association of Research Institutes of Social Sciences).

Kondratiev. Theory of long waves. Briefly

In fact, the economist Kondratiev tried empirically to substantiate the presence of all long-term fluctuations. That is, he substantiates the hypothesis itself empirically, analyzing the series available at that time: prices, accrued interest, wages, turnover of the foreign trade market for four capitalistically developed countries. In reality, of course, it was all driven in large part by the presence of databases.

In his works, the scientist shows that long-term cycles can be seen in the movement of the listed indicators. Of course, these intervals were obtained by a difficult observation of all the figures; appropriate statistical work was carried out there onhighlighting trends and so on.

After this study, the economist Kondratiev proposes three incomplete waves: an upward wave of 1780-1810, followed by a decline in the conjuncture of 1810, 1817, and further to 1844-1851. The increase is observed from 1844-1851. to 1870-1875 This is followed by a decline from 1870 to 1890-1896. New upward wave from 1890-1896 to 1914-1920 And so on.

Here is a wave that began at the end of the 19th century, its rise lasted until the early 20s of the 19th century. And what's next? Kondratiev, of course, had no further indications. Therefore, it was not possible to find accurate data about what would happen at the end of the 20s or 30s. Nikolai Dmitrievich wrote only about those times that have already passed.

Further periods

It is clear that every scientist, and indeed many people, had such a temptation to draw, to extend further this picture of cyclical moments. See where the up and down waves fall in the future, where the inflection points are, what is happening there.

But, of course, we can assume that if we add 50-60 years to 1890, we get the 40-50s of the twentieth century. That is the end of the wave. But after 1940, we can expect the beginning of the rise. Accordingly, this interval, starting from the twenties, is the beginning of a downward wave. At the beginning of this period, of course, nothing good can be expected. Why is this happening? Because there are some empirical correctness that Kondratievinfers using historical statistics. He described what actually happened in the up waves and in the down waves.

Relationship of the crisis with technical progress

There are several main empirical correctness from the works of Nikolai Dmitrievich Kondratiev:

• In particular, this is that in the second half of the downward stage there are quite rapid technical improvements, as well as new ways of producing various basic goods and the means to create innovations begin to develop.
• And another rule of thumb is that on the up wave of a large cycle, small periods are less destructive than on the down segment.

Nikolai Dmitrievich Kondratyev is actually trying to get the most out of what can be obtained from the available statistical material.

What is the mechanism of this process?

The emergence of large business cycles is caused by the turnover of fixed capital with a long service life, the accumulation of free money capital and scientific and technological progress.

Here one feels that the idea is taken from Tugan-Baranovsky that supposedly big waves of conjuncture have the same pattern as the 7-11-year Juglar cycles. This hypothesis was put forward by Tugan-Baranovsky in 1917 in his paper "Paper Money and Metal".

Some facts that appeared in the world economy showed Kondratiev was right. For example, it is an internal combustion engine, a steam engine, and so on. That's itthese major scientific and technical discoveries are considered by the scientist. The social upheavals associated with the upward wave theory coincide with the predicted timing of the long wave theory.

Critic reviews

In fact, the idea of Nikolai Dmitrievich Kondratiev caused a mixed reaction among economists. And during the criticism of 1926, quite sensible remarks were made regarding, for example, that there is not much data to introduce such a long wave.

The earliest data is the end of the 18th century. That is, a very small array of information was selected. When Nikolai Dmitrievich processed his primary data, he used a rather arbitrary choice of curve. And when he explained these same empirical correctness - it was largely an artificial explanation. Because you can always pick up some innovations, and ignore some facts.

That is, criticism of the scientist was quite constructive. The problem was that such reviews were not the only ones. And for some people, the reasoning that capitalism moves in such long waves meant that this system would develop in this way for a very long time. However, the general idea of the country of the Soviets was such that private enterprise should soon come to its natural end.

Nikolai Dmitrievich Kondratiev, of course, understood the subtlety of this situation, he said from the very beginning that he was studying the movement of conventions of capitalist production. And as long as it existsthis direction, you can use this toolkit. If there is no capitalism, then there will be no long waves.