Method of income forecasting. Budget revenue planning

Method of income forecasting. Budget revenue planning
Method of income forecasting. Budget revenue planning

The methodology for forecasting revenues to the budget of the settlement is implemented in the context of specific types of deductions, in relation to which the administration is vested with the powers of the main manager of funds. It is used to analyze the volume of amounts that are expected to be received in the next financial period from the population, organizations, institutions. The administration issues a resolution approving the income forecasting methodology.

income forecasting methodology

Calculation methods

Planning budget revenues is carried out by:

  1. Direct calculation. This method is based on the direct use of expected indicators (value and volume), rate levels and other values ​​that determine the value of the expected amounts.
  2. Averaging. This income forecasting technique is implemented on the basis of calculating the average amount of deductions for a period of at least 3 years or for the entirethe term for replenishing the treasury of the Ministry of Defense with the relevant types of deductions, if it does not exceed three years.

The administration may provide for other methods of payment.

Payment categories

The developed methodology for forecasting budget revenues is used when calculating the expected:

  1. Amounts deducted from the lease of material assets transferred to the bodies of territorial administration and institutions created by them for operational management. The exception is the property of autonomous and municipal budget organizations.
  2. Rent, funds from the realization of the rights to conclude agreements on the transfer for use of land owned by the administrative-territorial units included in the MO. The exception is the allotments of autonomous and municipal budget structures.
  3. Other amounts deducted from the use of material assets that are the property of the administrative-territorial units included in the MO. The exception is the property of municipal autonomous and budgetary institutions, unitary, state-owned, including enterprises.
budget revenue planning

In order to analyze the expected volume of deductions of the indicated amounts, a revenue forecasting technique based on direct and average calculation methods is used.


The income forecasting methodology includes the calculation of the amounts that can be transferred by land users in the coming financial year. The following equation is used for this:

A=C x P, in which:

  • rent - A;
  • market value of the allotment - С;
  • refinancing rate of the Central Bank – R.
  • income forecasting methodology

The price of the plot is determined on the basis of an assessment made no more than six months before the signing of the lease agreement. The amount that is expected to be deducted for the use of property owned, as well as operational management, is calculated by the formula:

AI \u003d (AItg + Su + Cs) x K, in which:

  • Amount of rental property expected to be credited next year - AI;
  • estimated amount in the current period – Aitg;
  • amount of reduction in deductions due to the reduction of areas provided for use in the next year - Сс;
  • Amount of increase in property receipts due to anticipated increase in rental properties in the coming period – Su;
  • expected deflator coefficient, which is applied to the rate of payment for the use of material assets or to their estimated value in the next year - K.

To calculate the total amount of these amounts in the coming period, the income forecasting methodology provides the following equation:

AZI (p)=(AZI (t) + AZI (t-1) + AZI (t-2))/3, in which:

  • Rent for property and land – AZI(r);
  • AZI (t) … AZI (t-1) is the actual (estimated) value of annual amounts for 3 years preceding the future.
methodology for forecasting non-tax revenues

Amounts from the sale of material assets

The income forecasting methodology provides the following formula for calculation:

RI=Pl x St, in which:

  • sales amounts – RI;
  • average cost of 1 sq. m. of an immovable object, determined on the basis of the results of auctions organized in the period preceding the settlement period - St;
  • area of ​​structures, buildings, premises to be sold in the next year - Sq.

The calculation of the volumes of the indicated amounts for the planning period is performed using the following equation:

RI (p)=(RI (t) + RI (t-1) + RI (t-2))/3, in which:

  • RI (t) … RI (t-2) – estimated (actual) value of annual deductions for 3 years preceding the next one.
  • on approval of income forecasting methodology

Variable amounts

The average non-tax revenue forecasting method is used to calculate expected non-systematic contributions. The initial data are the average annual volumes of the actual amounts received over the previous three years. These indicators are taken from reports on the execution of budget items (f. 0503127). The category of non-permanent includes amounts:

  1. State fees for the implementation of notarial acts by employees of local authorities who have the appropriate authority, in accordance with the legislation of the Russian Federation.
  2. From the disposal and sale of confiscated and other material assets converted into incomesettlements.
  3. State duties for the provision by local authorities of a special permit for the movement of vehicles transporting heavy/oversized, dangerous goods on the roads.
  4. Charged by local authorities for the performance of certain functions.
  5. From monetary pen alties for violations of financial laws.
  6. From compensation for damage caused by misuse or misuse of funds by local administrations.
  7. From the collection of fines for violations of the RF regulations on the contract system in the field of procurement of services, products, works to ensure municipal and state needs.
  8. methodology for forecasting the receipt of non-tax revenues


The methodology for forecasting non-tax revenues provides for the following calculation method:

P=(P (m) + P (m-1) + P (m-2) + P (m-3))/4 where

  • P (m) … P(m-3) - the actual value of the amounts received for 3 reporting periods;
  • P (m) - the estimated amount of funds in the current year.

The last indicator is calculated by the formula:

P (m)=(Po (m) / k) 12, in which:

  • Ро (m) – the actual value of the amounts received for the completed period in the current year;
  • k - the number of months of the completed reporting period in current. year.

The cumulative amount of the above amounts for the coming period is determined using the following equation:

P (p)=(P (t) + P (t-1) + P (t-2))/3, in which:

P (t) … P(t-2) is the estimated (actual) value of the annual amounts received during the three years preceding the forecast


The volumes of such amounts coming from the regional budget are projected in accordance with the indicators established in the legislative acts of the subject or regulatory documents of the authorities. The amount of gratuitous funds from the district fund expected to be credited is calculated according to the values ​​\u200b\u200bspecified in the decision on the composition of financial items for the coming period.

methodology for forecasting revenues to the budget of the settlement


Forecasting budget revenues is of particular importance for a rural settlement. Using various calculation options, the administration can analyze the amount of funds that it may have at its disposal. This, in turn, ensures the planning of expenses for the coming periods. The calculation of the expected amounts of funds is preceded by an analysis of the amounts already received earlier. In accordance with the results of the assessment, the administration gets the opportunity to identify promising areas for spending finances, using property that is the property of an administrative-territorial unit in the operational management of institutions and enterprises. Properly used methods of analysis and calculation make it possible to achieve greater independence from regional and municipal subsidies.

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