- What is a security risk
- Classification of threats
- Internal threats to national securityRussia
- External threats to Russia's national security
- The manifestation of the US threat (Cold War)
- The conflict in Ukraine as a direct threat
- Radicals and terrorist organizations
- Economic threat (sanctions)
- Modern threats
- Forecast for the future
In the modern world, in the light of recent events, topics are increasingly being raised that explain risk factors and, in general, all military threats to Russia's national security. To consider this problem more broadly, it is necessary to first understand the concept itself. The satisfaction of any national interests in the modern world is due to the mutual and mutual action of countries on the world stage with the assistance of forces directly within the country. Such relations are on the verge of cooperation and confrontation - at the same time. Thus, one can consider this state of affairs as an ordinary struggle for survival. Therefore, one way or another, countries should take into account mutual interests. But if the rules of the game are not followed or if one state has a disregard for another, this can be regarded as a threat to the security or integrity of the state, at least in economic terms.
What is a security risk
Thus, military threats to Russia's national security can be defined as indirect or direct opportunities for risking freedom,constitutional rights, territorial value, level and quality of life of citizens, development, security and defense of the state.
Such clashes based on the satisfaction of their national interests are the first step towards problems related to security. This is how the interpretation of the concept looks, but based on this, the following should be noted. In the absence of a national interest, the threat as such does not exist, thus, it can be classified as a danger, which in itself can appear not only as a result of human activities, but also natural, man-made and natural disasters.
Classification of threats
Before considering how strong the national security of the Russian Federation is and where danger should be expected from, it is worth analyzing the types of threats.
A potential threat is always considered during the development and creation of any program. Despite the plan and its direction, such risks must be calculated. At the same time, immediate threats require the immediate activation of special systems and "levers" for the crisis to take an adequate response. Most often, the focus of such problems is precisely potential threats. Sources may be targeted, for a specific purpose and relatively geographically focused. The latter, in turn, can be determined not only by external, but also by internal sources, which we will discuss in more detail using a specific example.
Internal threats to national securityRussia
At the moment, the main threats to military security can be divided into the following:
- Social tension in society can be one of the most dangerous risks. This is the so-called time bomb, which can explode at any moment, as soon as the gap between the rich and the poor reaches a critical limit. This implies the growth of tension in society, prostitution, alcoholism, drug addiction, the criminal component.
- Resource orientation, in this example, oil and gas, of course, allows you to have a high income for the entire state, but at the same time, it is worth noting that there can be no talk of any sustainable and stable economic growth.
- Increasing economic growth gap between different regions. In conditions when one region lives better than another, ties are destroyed, and this definitely does not contribute to integration between regions.
- The crime situation of the whole society in Russia. Recently, cases of unearned income have become more frequent, and this can be observed both among the general population and the top of power, which affects the general instability and instability of the economy. In such a situation, it is almost impossible to bring the national economy out of the current crisis.
- Problems associated with a decrease in scientific and technical potential as the basis for economic growth. In fact, the national security of the Russian Federation is facing a rather serious threat, due to the fact that recently Russia has not made a sufficient contribution to knowledge-intensive industries, so the necessary scientific potentialjust no.
- Separatist views of individual territories that function on the principle of a federal structure.
- Interethnic and interethnic tension, which has only intensified recently.
- The demographic crisis and the decline in the physical he alth of the population.
If we consider all the above security threats together, it is clear that they are quite closely related. When one occurs, the next one may become relevant, and so on along the chain. The elimination of all these problems is necessary in order to ensure the preservation of statehood. But in addition to internal threats, special attention should be paid to external ones.
External threats to Russia's national security
As for problems from outside, everything is much simpler here, and they seem more obvious, since basically the whole country suffers from their action. These threats include the following:
- International terrorism.
- Reducing the role of the Russian Federation in world political and economic life, due to the targeted actions of both specific states and organizations (the example of the OSCE and the UN).
- Territorial expansion relative to China and Japan.
- Continuous increase in NATO military presence.
- Deployment of military forces near the borders of Russia, in particular the United States.
- Weapons of mass destruction ubiquitous.
- Deterioration of relations with the CIS countries, in particular Belarus and Ukraine.
- Crisis of the country's defense potential.
- The constant emergence of military armedconfrontations near the borders and CIS countries, a vivid example of this is the crisis in Ukraine and the military coup of 2013-2015
- Weakening of the position in the field of telecommunications, due to a number of countries that are investing enormous funds in the information war.
- Activation of foreign organizations, spies and the so-called fifth column on the territory of the Russian Federation.
Thus, internal and external threats necessarily require constant monitoring in order to keep security under control.
The manifestation of the US threat (Cold War)
In fact, there have been constant attempts to show hostility from the US, and there are many facts about this, and such maneuvers from this side will continue in the future. A political solution to this problem can hardly be found, since the interests of the Russian Federation and America lie in completely different planes and understanding of what is happening. But, as experts have already noted, the Cold War did not actually end, but only a short break was taken in order to hit Russia with renewed vigor.
Much can shed light on recent chess castling in Eastern Europe and the interest of the United States in all of this. Despite the fact that the CIA has 4 bases outside of America, plans are most likely to build another one right on the borders with Russia, namely in Ukraine.
As can be seen from the latest situation in this country, Ukrainian structures are incompetent, extravagant, deceitful and, in addition, there are obvious elements of disrespect forto the President of Russia, nor to the state as a whole. If the CIA base is opened, then America will be able to carry on a conversation with the Russian Federation, if not in elevated, then in confident tones. Thus, an experienced, highly established structure will appear at the borders, which established its own order in more than 40 countries.
The conflict in Ukraine as a direct threat
On the subject of "the enemy at the gates", it is certainly worth noting that military threats to Russia's national security have become critical after the conflict in Ukraine, and this is noted by the competent services around the world.
So, suppose that the plans of the government of the most "democratic" country in the world (according to its own version), really is the construction of bases in Ukraine. Why is this needed and what will it actually give? In fact, the answer lies not only in the geopolitical control of this region. Naturally, in this country, the first thing to do is to create a special center for the training of radicals and terrorists, so that later they will be transferred to Russia to cause unrest. In this case, we are talking about those young people who have been ideologically indoctrinated since the early 1990s. Now, almost more than half of the friendly, fraternal and once united country within the USSR considers Russia to be the root of all troubles and the main enemy, so they will gladly go to learn how to kill the enemy at American training grounds.
Radicals and terrorist organizations
The threat of terrorism and radicalism can be no less of a problem.The primary task of such organizations is to exacerbate the degree of tension, induce chaos, unrest and fear in society, the need to rock the situation and strain the situation.
As you know, there is a lot of direct evidence that the United States is creating terrorists on an industrial scale, but for some reason the world community constantly turns a blind eye to this (for unknown reasons). In Afghanistan, it was al-Qaeda, and its actions were directly directed against the USSR. After the collapse, the need for it subsided, and after that the double agent of the CIA Osama bin Laden was killed as an extra and already unnecessary witness, but in the media he was presented as terrorist No. 1.
What do we see in the modern world? Libya, Syria, Ukraine, and then who? And next will be Russia, and help America in this ISIS. Thus, it can be said with certainty that the threat of terrorism mainly comes from only one “democratic” state, which, under the guise of an ardent fighter against these structures, creates the danger itself.
Despite the fact that NATO bases have flooded the whole world, direct military operations with the Russian Federation are practically excluded. Therefore, military threats to Russia's national security from this bloc are close to zero. Many facts can speak about this, and, of course, the Russian "nuclear fist" plays an important role. No one wants to doom the entire planet to death, and the opening of the Southern and Eastern fronts can just lead to this. Of course, the possibility of active participation of this bloc is not ruled out if the Russian Federation doeswill be able to withstand the economic blockade and sanctions, but still it will again not be open, but underground activity in the preparation of militants, terrorists and their transfer to the territory. But, one way or another, such external military threats as the NATO bloc can be safely regarded as potential
Economic threat (sanctions)
In the course of recent events, one wonders why such a large, rich and powerful country suffers from deliberate economic impact? And the problem is the following, as they say, "trouble came from where they did not expect it." Modern Russia is a raw material appendage of the economy, but not its own, we are talking about exports. The impact of the sanctions was so planned and tangible that all the world's levers were involved. This is the artificial reduction in oil prices by the Arab states, and the restrictions that Europe has introduced. The modern economy of the Russian Federation largely ignores the needs of the citizen, as it was 20 years ago. Modern business itself does not produce enough, and often just sells its own raw materials or, even worse, imported goods. Therefore, emphasis was placed on the most vulnerable and vital sectors. This should be regarded as an impetus for re-profiling to the eastern market, but is it not too late, couldn’t this move have been foreseen?
Undoubtedly, terrorism is the No. 1 threat to Russia's national security, but if we look into the near future, then several more equally important problems may be added to this problem. Already since 2015year, the Russian Federation may find itself in the very center of a fight to the death for natural resources. The world began to rebuild from multipolarity to polycentrism, instability began to grow, competition became fiercer between new centers of power. The modern world is entering one of the most difficult demographic, ecological and resource periods. Russia in this situation is a very important player due to its geopolitical position. And no military threat is terrible only when you are treated as an equal, and in the case of Russia, when they are afraid. Therefore, no matter how many attempts are made to weaken its geopolitical and geographical positions, all of them will be nullified. But with growth in fossil fuels steadily rising and gas and oil remaining the main energy sources with a projected share of 84% through 2030, Russia's time is yet to come. The only danger is that the Russian Federation borders on 16 states that are constantly trying to revise their borders.
Forecast for the future
Of course, the Kremlin's relations with Brussels and Washington will never be the same again. And in response to all the threats of NATO, the US NMD systems, the constant "color" revolutions in a number of post-Soviet countries and near the borders of Russia, the government updated the doctrine, which refers to ensuring the national security of the state. According to this document, in response to action, counteraction will immediately follow, thanks to which the whole country can sleep peacefully and not worry about its future.